Final results Analysis comparison between all votes and Formal Votings only

March 31, 2006

http://www.cvk.gov.ua/vnd2006/w6p001e.html
Source Offical Final results as of 30.03.2006 19:48:36   100% counted
Date March 29, 2006 Poll Date: March 26, 2006
Name of the party or electoral bloc
PR Party of Regions  
BYuT Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko
NS-NU Bloc ‘Our Ukraine’
SPU Socialist Party of Ukraine
KPU Communist Party of Ukraine
NVB People’s Opposition Bloc of Natalia Vitrenko
LPB Bloc of Lytvyn
VICHE Ukrainian National Bloc of Kostenko and Pliushch
UPBKP Party ‘Viche’
CBP ‘Civil Political Bloc Pora-PRP’
OBNY Opposition Bloc ‘Ne Tak’
Party Block Poll% Vote% Seats% No of Seats
PR 33,37% 33,37% 39,84% 179
BYuT 23,14% 23,14% 27,63% 124
NS-NU 14,49% 14,49% 17,30% 78
SPU 5,90% 5,90% 7,04% 32
KPU 3,80% 3,80% 4,54% 20
NVB 3,04% 3,04% 3,64% 16
LPB 2,53% 2,53%  
UPBKP 1,82% 1,82%  
VICHE 1,95% 1,95%  
CBP 1,53% 1,53%  
OBNY 1,05% 1,05%  
Others 7,38% 7,38%  
 
Sum 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 450
 
* Based on formal vote only.    This is presented as a comparison to the offial results which include informal voets in teh calculation of teh 3% threshold.  It is open to beate if this is appropiate of the correct thing to do as is the inclusions of the inital 3% in calulating the number of positions/seats allocated to each party
 

 

 

 
Results as of 30.03.2006  13:00:00  
CEC %
Vote
Formal %
1
Party of Regions 
32,12
8144485
33,37%
2
Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko
22,27
5648345
23,14%
3
Bloc ‘Our Ukraine’
13,94
3536459
14,49%
4
Socialist Party of Ukraine
5,67
1439624
5,90%
5
Communist Party of Ukraine
3,66
928501
3,80%
6
People’s Opposition Bloc of Natalia Vitrenko
2,93
743125
3,04%
7
Bloc of Lytvyn
2,43
618060
2,53%
8
Ukrainian National Bloc of Kostenko and Pliushch
1,87
475636
1,95%
9
Party ‘Viche’
1,74
443559
1,82%
10
‘Civil Political Bloc Pora-PRP’
1,47
372931
1,53%
11
Opposition Bloc ‘Ne Tak’
1,01
256836
1,05%
12
Party ‘Renaissance’
0,96
244862
1,00%
13
Bloc of Yuriy Karamazin
0,65
165820
0,68%
14
Green Party of Ukraine
0,54
137845
0,56%
15
National Democratic Party of Ukraine
0,49
126741
0,52%
16
The party of Environmental Protection
0,47
120107
0,49%
17
All Ukrainian Union ‘Freedom’
0,38
96746
0,40%
18
Party ‘Green Planet’
0,37
94747
0,39%
19
Peasant Party of Ukraine
0,32
81397
0,33%
20
Bloc of Lazarenka
0,31
80521
0,33%
21
National- Economic Development of Ukraine Party
0,23
60162
0,25%
22
Bloc ‘For Union’
0,20
53213
0,22%
23
Pensioners of Ukraine Party
0,20
51099
0,21%
24
Bloc ‘State- Labor Union’
0,14
36562
0,15%
25
‘Third Power’
0,13
35196
0,14%
26
National Movement of Ukraine for Unity
0,13
34728
0,14%
27
‘The Party of Putin’s Politics’
0,12
32079
0,13%
28
All Ukrainian Party ‘People’s Faith’
0,12
30445
0,12%
29
Ukrainian Party of Honor, Combating Corruption and Organized Crime
0,11
28898
0,12%
30
Patriotic Forces of Ukraine Party
0,10
26627
0,11%
31
Conservative party of Ukraine
0,10
25574
0,10%
32
Bloc ‘People’s Power’
0,09
25094
0,10%
33
Party ‘Labor of Ukraine’
0,09
25032
0,10%
34
Social-Environmental Party ‘Union,Chornobyl,Ukraine’
0,09
24033
0,10%
35
Social-Christian Party
0,09
23557
0,10%
36
Bloc of Borysa Oliynyka and Mykhaila Syroty
0,08
22126
0,09%
37
‘National Ukrainian Assembly’
0,06
17037
0,07%
38
Bloc of Evgen Marchuk – ‘Unity’
0,06
16632
0,07%
39
Social Protection Party
0,05
15024
0,06%
40
Non-partisan Bloc ‘Sun’
0,05
13009
0,05%
41
Bloc ‘Patriots of Ukraine’
0,05
12820
0,05%
42
‘New Power’
0,05
12725
0,05%
43
Liberal Party of Ukraine
0,04
12104
0,05%
44
European Capital party
0,04
12042
0,05%
45
Political Party ‘Ahead, Ukraine’
0,02
6970
0,03%
 
 
 
 
 
 
Sum
96    
24409135
100,00%

 

Analysis based on inclusion of informal votes in the calculation of the 3% threshold

http://www.cvk.gov.ua/vnd2006/w6p001e.html
Source Offical Final results as of 30.03.2006 19:48:36   100% counted
Date March 29, 2006 Poll Date: March 26, 2006
Name of the party or electoral bloc
PR Party of Regions  
BYuT Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko
NS-NU Bloc ‘Our Ukraine’
SPU Socialist Party of Ukraine
KPU Communist Party of Ukraine
NVB People’s Opposition Bloc of Natalia Vitrenko
LPB Bloc of Lytvyn
VICHE Ukrainian National Bloc of Kostenko and Pliushch
UPBKP Party ‘Viche’
CBP ‘Civil Political Bloc Pora-PRP’
OBNY Opposition Bloc ‘Ne Tak’
Party Block Poll% Vote% Seats% No of Seats
PR 32,08% 32,08% 41,35% 186
BYuT 22,25% 22,25% 28,68% 129
NS-NU 13,93% 13,93% 17,95% 81
SPU 5,67% 5,67% 7,31% 33
KPU 3,66% 3,66% 4,71% 21
NVB 2,93% 2,93%  
LPB 2,43% 2,43%  
UPBKP 1,75% 1,75%  
VICHE 1,87% 1,87%  
CBP 1,47% 1,47%  
OBNY 1,01% 1,01%  
Others 10,94% 7,10%  
 
Sum 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 450
Summary 100,00%      
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The 3% threshold analysis of the published votes indicates that Ukraine includes informal votes in calculating the 3% threshold

March 31, 2006

Analysis of the final vote indicates that Ukraine includes the number of informal ballots when calculating the 3% threshold requirement. If you consider only formal votes then then percentage allocated to parties/blocks goes up and a new player would enter into the parliamentary arena. Natalia Vitrenko having just fallen should of the 3% quota should challenge the results and call fro a recount. In the interest of fair play and correctness Ukraine a request for a recount should be granted.

In the first interest all votes cast for Natalia Vitrenko should be re-examined along with the informal vote and those allocated to parties above and below her position on the ballot paper to determine if there was any mistake in the allocation of votes. If errors are found then this may indicate if their is a need for a more though examination of other ballots.


Final results 100% of votes recorded published

March 31, 2006

CEC publishes 100% of preliminary election’s poll – 2006

Central Election Committee has finished processing protocols and announced preliminary results of the parliamentary election in Ukraine.
$B-b(B
  Party (bloc) % for
1   Party of Regions 32,12
2   BYuT 22,27
3   Our Ukraine 13.94
4   Socialist party 5,67
5   Communist party 3,66
6   Natalia Vitrenko’s bloc 2,93
7   Lytvyn’s bloc 2,43
8   Ukrainian bloc of Kostenko and Plushch 1,87
9   Viche party 1,74
10   Pora-PRP 1,47
11   Opposition bloc “Ne TAK!” 1,01
12 Others (less then 3%) 24,83
 
 

 

Informal 1,93% (489,797 votes)


Calls for Ukraine’s President to resign Victor Yushenko should quit the Our Ukraine party and govern for all Ukraine

March 30, 2006

As the results of the election are being finalized negotiations and political gamesmanship is under way to decide who will govern Ukraine with speculation rife as to who will do a deal with who and what is at stake for each of the five parties that have won parliamentary seats as they formulate bids.

Behind all the negotiations is the theoretical Trump Card held by the President.

Parliament must meet within two weeks of the official declaration of the election results.

Under Ukraine’s constitution the President has the power to sack the newly elected government if a coalition representing a majority of the Parliament can not be formed within one month of the Parliament meeting.

Whilst we would consider it unlikely and unwise for the President to use his trump card it never the less is in the back of the mind of all players as negotiations evolve. If the President plays his constitutional hand then Ukraine would be thrown into political and economic uncertainly. At risk is a political backlash that the President can ill-afford and should not gamble on the outcome.

The President’s Party, Our Ukraine, received less then 14% of voters support. This is of little comfort to the President as his party is now seen as a minor player in any future coalition even though they might hold the key to the outcome.

PRESIDENT SHOULD GOVERN FOR ALL UKRAINE

The President can not dismiss or distance himself from Our Ukraine‘s poor election result, Yushchenko himself played a key role during the election in the Our Ukraine’s campaign, His name even formed part of the promotional material and Our Ukraine and Yushchenko were seen as one. The fact that Our Ukraine received just over 1/2 the votes of Yulia Tymoshenko (23%) and a third of his rival Party of Regions seriously undermines the President’s political position and his international standing.

If Viktor Yushchenko wants to regain public support and respect he must now consider further his own position and resign from the Our Ukraine party and remain as an independent President responsible for governing all for all and not just the 14% of Ukrainians that voted for Our Ukraine.

COALITION AGREEMENTS

Any discussion that forms part of a coalition agreement MUST insist that the President refrain from Party Politics and as such must resign from Our Ukraine.

It is a common position for a head of State to be distant from the dayly throws of political bantering. Yushchenko and his supporters would significantly benefit from such a move and as would any Political agreement to form a working coalition.


Calls for Ukraine’s President to resign Victor Yushenko should quit the Our Ukraine party and govern for all Ukraine

March 30, 2006

As the results of the election are being finalized negotiations and political gamesmanship is under way to decide who will govern Ukraine with speculation rife as to who will do a deal with who and what is at stake for each of the five parties that have won parliamentary seats as they formulate bids.

Behind all the negotiations is the theoretical Trump Card held by the President.

Parliament must meet within two weeks of the official declaration of the election results.

Under Ukraine’s constitution the President has the power to sack the newly elected government if a coalition representing a majority of the Parliament can not be formed within one month of the Parliament meeting.

Whilst we would consider it unlikely and unwise for the President to use his trump card it never the less is in the back of the mind of all players as negotiations evolve. If the President plays his constitutional hand then Ukraine would be thrown into political and economic uncertainly. At risk is a political backlash that the President can ill-afford and should not gamble on the outcome.

The President’s Party, Our Ukraine, received less then 14% of voters support. This is of little comfort to the President as his party is now seen as a minor player in any future coalition even though they might hold the key to the outcome.

PRESIDENT SHOULD GOVERN FOR ALL UKRAINE

The President can not dismiss or distance himself from Our Ukraine‘s poor election result, Yushchenko himself played a key role during the election in the Our Ukraine’s campaign, His name even formed part of the promotional material and Our Ukraine and Yushchenko were seen as one. The fact that Our Ukraine received just over 1/2 the votes of Yulia Tymoshenko (23%) and a third of his rival Party of Regions seriously undermines the President’s political position and his international standing.

If Viktor Yushchenko wants to regain public support and respect he must now consider further his own position and resign from the Our Ukraine party and remain as an independent President responsible for governing all for all and not just the 14% of Ukrainians that voted for Our Ukraine.

COALITION AGREEMENTS

Any discussion that forms part of a coalition agreement MUST insist that the President refrain from Party Politics and as such must resign from Our Ukraine.

It is a common position for a head of State to be distant from the dayly throws of political bantering. Yushchenko and his supporters would significantly benefit from such a move and as would any Political agreement to form a working coalition.


CEC Results Published at 13:00 Thursday March 30: 99.69 percent counted

March 30, 2006
Offical results as of 1PM today.  Still missing is 4% from the percentage tally. It could be that they count informal votes in determining the tally.  Informal votes is recorded at 1.77 percent which is low by normal standards, buit that still leaves 2.23% unaccounted for. This is anything is a problem with the publiushed computerized information which is not complete in its format.
 
CEC WEB LINK
 

  Results as of 30.03.2006  13:00:00   CEC % Vote Formal %
1 Party of Regions  32,10 8097982 33,34%
2 Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko 22,26 5617498 23,13%
3 Bloc ‘Our Ukraine’ 13,96 3524052 14,51%
4 Socialist Party of Ukraine 5,68 1435149 5,91%
5 Communist Party of Ukraine 3,66 924023 3,80%
6 People’s Opposition Bloc of Natalia Vitrenko 2,91 736443 3,03%
7 Bloc of Lytvyn 2,43 615357 2,53%
8 Ukrainian National Bloc of Kostenko and Pliushch 1,87 474099 1,95%
9 Party ‘Viche’ 1,74 441139 1,82%
10 ‘Civil Political Bloc Pora-PRP’ 1,47 371158 1,53%
11 Opposition Bloc ‘Ne Tak’ 1,01 255063 1,05%
12 Party ‘Renaissance’ 0,96 244440 1,01%
13 Bloc of Yuriy Karamazin 0,65 164907 0,68%
14 Green Party of Ukraine 0,54 136732 0,56%
15 National Democratic Party of Ukraine 0,50 126265 0,52%
16 The party of Environmental Protection 0,47 120216 0,49%
17 All Ukrainian Union ‘Freedom’ 0,38 96266 0,40%
18 Party ‘Green Planet’ 0,37 94482 0,39%
19 Peasant Party of Ukraine 0,32 81391 0,34%
20 Bloc of Lazarenka 0,32 80768 0,33%
21 National- Economic Development of Ukraine Party 0,23 59937 0,25%
22 Bloc ‘For Union’ 0,21 53602 0,22%
23 Pensioners of Ukraine Party 0,20 50900 0,21%
24 Bloc ‘State- Labor Union’ 0,14 36393 0,15%
25 ‘Third Power’ 0,13 35067 0,14%
26 National Movement of Ukraine for Unity 0,13 34599 0,14%
27 ‘The Party of Putin’s Politics’ 0,12 32264 0,13%
28 All Ukrainian Party ‘People’s Faith’ 0,12 30432 0,13%
29 Ukrainian Party of Honor, Combating Corruption and Organized Crime 0,11 28770 0,12%
30 Patriotic Forces of Ukraine Party 0,10 26401 0,11%
31 Conservative party of Ukraine 0,10 25473 0,10%
32 Bloc ‘People’s Power’ 0,09 24954 0,10%
33 Party ‘Labor of Ukraine’ 0,09 24894 0,10%
34 Social-Environmental Party ‘Union,Chornobyl,Ukraine’ 0,09 23964 0,10%
35 Social-Christian Party 0,09 23425 0,10%
36 Bloc of Borysa Oliynyka and Mykhaila Syroty 0,08 21925 0,09%
37 ‘National Ukrainian Assembly’ 0,06 16975 0,07%
38 Bloc of Evgen Marchuk – ‘Unity’ 0,06 16615 0,07%
39 Social Protection Party 0,05 14979 0,06%
40 Non-partisan Bloc ‘Sun’ 0,05 13027 0,05%
41 Bloc ‘Patriots of Ukraine’ 0,05 12948 0,05%
42 ‘New Power’ 0,05 12794 0,05%
43 Liberal Party of Ukraine 0,04 12081 0,05%
44 European Capital party 0,04 11939 0,05%
45 Political Party ‘Ahead, Ukraine’ 0,02 6935 0,03%
         
  Sum 96,0     24288723 100,00%

Results and Analysis of Seat Allocation as of 12PM Wednesday March 29: Two Methods listed

March 29, 2006
There is some confusion as to if the initial 3% threshold in the seat allocation is included.  I previously included the 3% on my calculations but when I read the article on Wikipdeia I was understood that the 3% was excluded in the calculation.  It does make some sense to discount this percentage ( I personally do not support thresholds but that is another issue).
 
In the absence of a clear indication as to the rules that apply I have published both methods.
 
I again wish to express concern that 22% of voters who supported minor parties have been disenfranchised. Had a system of preferential voting been adopted these voters would have had their vote allocated according to their expressed preference. Under the current system major Party votes are inflated dis-proportionately to the voters choice and intention.
 
This is an issue that Ukraine should seriously review and consideration should be given to adopting a system of preferential voting.  (It would save Ukraine 100’s of millions of dollars in direct and indirect costs – in particular with the conduct of the Presidential elections)
 
 
 
Method One.
Seat Allocation (Discounting the 3% threshold)
 

http://www.cvk.gov.ua/vnd2006/w6p001e.html
Source Offical results as of 12:00PM   95% counted
Date March 29, 2006 Poll Date: March 26, 2006
Name of the party or electoral bloc
PR Party of Regions (PR)
BYuT Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc (BYuT)
NS-NU Bloc ‘Our Ukraine’ (NS-NU)
SPU Socialist Party of Ukraine (SPU)
KPU Communist Party of Ukraine (KPU)
NVB Nataliya Vitrenko Bloc ‘People’s Opposition’ (NVB)
LPB Lytvyn’s People’s Bloc (LPB)
VICHE Viche Party
UPBKP Ukrainian People’s Bloc of Kostenko and Plyusch
CBP Civil Bloc PORA-PRP’ (CBP)
OBNY Oppositional bloc NOT YES! (OBNY)
Party Block Poll% Vote% Seats% No of Seats
PR 31,50% 31,50% 45,43% 204
BYuT 22,40% 22,40% 30,93% 139
NS-NU 14,35% 14,35% 18,09% 81
SPU 5,84% 5,84% 4,53% 20
KPU 3,64% 3,64% 1,02% 5
NVB 2,78% 2,78%  
LPB 2,45% 2,45%  
VICHE 1,68% 1,68%  
UPBKP 1,95% 1,95%  
CBP 1,48% 1,48%  
OBNY 0,98% 0,98%  
Others 10,95% 10,95%  
 
Sum 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 450
Undecided 0,00%
Balance 0,00%
Summary 100,00%      
 
 
 
Method Two.
Seat Allocation (3% threshold included in allocation)
 

http://www.cvk.gov.ua/vnd2006/w6p001e.html
Source Offical results as of 12:00PM   95% counted
Date March 29, 2006 Poll Date: March 26, 2006
Name of the party or electoral bloc
PR Party of Regions (PR)
BYuT Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc (BYuT)
NS-NU Bloc ‘Our Ukraine’ (NS-NU)
SPU Socialist Party of Ukraine (SPU)
KPU Communist Party of Ukraine (KPU)
NVB Nataliya Vitrenko Bloc ‘People’s Opposition’ (NVB)
LPB Lytvyn’s People’s Bloc (LPB)
VICHE Viche Party
UPBKP Ukrainian People’s Bloc of Kostenko and Plyusch
CBP Civil Bloc PORA-PRP’ (CBP)
OBNY Oppositional bloc NOT YES! (OBNY)
Party Block Poll% Vote% Seats% No of Seats
PR 31,50% 31,50% 40,52% 182
BYuT 22,40% 22,40% 28,82% 130
NS-NU 14,35% 14,35% 18,46% 83
SPU 5,84% 5,84% 7,51% 34
KPU 3,64% 3,64% 4,68% 21
NVB 2,78% 2,78%  
LPB 2,45% 2,45%  
VICHE 1,68% 1,68%  
UPBKP 1,95% 1,95%  
CBP 1,48% 1,48%  
OBNY 0,98% 0,98%  
Others 10,95% 10,95%  
 
Sum 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 450
Undecided 0,00%
Balance 0,00%
Summary 100,00%