Extract from bbc News international Version
Ukraine press gloomy after polls
Ukrainian papers are pessimistic as the parliamentary election results suggest the parties of the former liberal Orange Revolution allies – President Viktor Yushchenko and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko – will try to form a coalition government.
Ms Tymoshenko is seen by several commentators to be the overall winner, despite coming second to the pro-Russian opposition Party of the Regions
FAKTY I KOMMENTARII
Ukraine does not have many options. Either the president and the cabinet formed by the opposition parties reach a compromise and peacefully co-exist for the benefit of all, or the situation in this country is aggravated by economic decline and social instability accompanied by a confrontation involving the president and parliament. This confrontation could result in the dissolution of parliament and another election.
President Viktor Yushchenko has lost. The new government will be formed either around the opposition Party of Regions or around former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko… The significant margin between Tymoshenko, who has won second place, and Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine has come as a big surprise. Probably the main reason is that this country has become totally disillusioned with Yushchenko and his policies… If the new parliament fails to form a workable coalition it will be dissolved by the president as the constitution requires. As the social and economic situation deteriorated the pro-presidential forces would suffer a crushing defeat at a new election. But the opposition Party of Regions would greatly improve their result and would be better placed to appoint their own cabinet.
The interesting thing about this campaign is that the one who has got the most votes may not be declared the winner. Those who have scored nothing may not find themselves among the losers. In this situation Tymoshenko seems to be the winner and Yushchenko is an apparent loser.
Now everyone is trying to solve a new puzzle: who will elect the new cabinet? This puzzle is not easy to solve because the [former allies of the] ‘Orange Revolution’ have shown on many occasions that they are incapable of reaching a compromise.
If the orange coalition is set up, former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko will be reinstated and given many more powers than she had last year. Our Ukraine will enjoy the post of parliament speaker. But if this post is given to Our Ukraine campaign manager Roman Bezsmertnyy a new series of all-out wars in the ‘orange’ camp will follow, and the new coalition cabinet will be very unstable.
From the international point of view, the 2004 presidential election showed the world that Ukraine was actually not Russia. However, the 2006 parliament election has shown that Ukraine is not the West either… Despite all the statements about possible configurations, an efficient and viable coalition is unlikely. A formal coalition agreement does not guarantee it will be able to work effectively.
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