Poll: FOM Ukrainian polls shows OU-PSD out polling BYuT

A FOM All-Ukrainian Poll published August 1 shows the governing coalition maintaining majority support. The Poll also shows Bloc Yulia Tymoshcneko trailing Our Ukraine – People’s Self Defence Bloc indicating that Yulia would once again lose the battle to win back her job she was dismissed from in 2005 by Viktor Yushchenko which spelled the begining of the end of the “Orange Revoultion”.

The other interesting aspect of this poll is that they have also made an attenmpt to determine the allocation of the undecided vote which shows the Lytvn Bloc most likely holding the balance or power with a realistic voter particaption rate of 87.7%

In order to present this data we have had to caluclate two columns one pre and the other following the notional distributon of the or the undecided vote which was determined on a 30% poll sample.


Poll Analysis (Part A – 2000 surveyed)
 

Poll Statistics   Publication Date 1-Aug-07  
Poll Dates from 18-Jul-07
to
    28-Jul-07      
Party/Bloc   % poll % vote # seats % seats
PoR 30.2% 34.4% 210 46.7%
BYuT 14.3% 16.3% 100 22.1%
OU * 15.1% 17.2% 105 23.4%
CPU 5.0% 5.7% 35 7.7%
PSD * 0.0% 0.0% 0
SPU 1.1% 1.3% 0
NVB 0.8% 0.9% 0
LB 2.4% 2.7% 0
VSB 0.0% 0.0%
Viche 0.0% 0.0%
Others 1.7% 1.9%
Uknown 17.1% 19.5%
Particpation Rate/Sum   87.7% 100.0% 450 100.0%
No Vote 12.3% 0.0%
Gov (PoR+CPU) 245 54.5%
Opp (OUPSD+BYuT) 205 45.5%
Lytvn Bloc 0 0.0%

 

Poll Analysis (Part B – 60% of 2000 surveyed) – Distribution of undecided voters
 

Poll Statistics   Publication Date 1-Aug-07  
Poll Dates from 18-Jul-07
to
    28-Jul-07      
Party/Bloc   % poll % vote # seats % seats
PoR 34.5% 39.3% 188 41.7%
BYuT 18.2% 20.8% 99 22.0%
OU * 19.1% 21.8% 104 23.1%
CPU 6.4% 7.3% 35 7.7%
PSD * 0.0% 0.0% 0
SPU 2.0% 2.3% 0
NVB 1.2% 1.4% 0
LB 4.6% 5.2% 25 5.6%
VSB 0.0% 0.0%
Viche 0.0% 0.0%
Others 1.7% 1.9%
Uknown 0.0% 0.0%
Particpation Rate/Sum   87.7% 100.0% 450 93.4%
No Vote 12.3% 6.6%
Gov (PoR+CPU) 222 49.4%
Opp (OUPSD+BYuT) 203 45.0%
Lytvn Bloc 25 5.6%

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