Victor Yushchenko’s dismissal Ukraine’s Parliament and the holding of another round of Parliamentary elections will single the death of the President’s Political Party Our Ukraine.
The Our Ukraine – People’s Self-defence faction is no longer. Representatives of Peoples-Self Defence are expected to vote on withdrawal from the President’s faction over the weekend.
All expectations, assuming the President will not falsify election results, is that Party of Regions will secure a majority in the next convocation of Ukraine’s Parliament. The President’s Party, Our Ukraine, is struggling to maintain over 3% support necessary to secure representation and there is no natural alliance or political partners that would be willing or prepared to enter into a coalition with the fledgling Presidential party.
Already members of Our Ukraine are engaged in negotiations to abandon association with Our Ukraine and are seeking a safe haven and support of other political factions.
The election scheduled for December 7 will be, by default, a referendum on the President himself, A referendum that Victor Yushchenko can not not win.
Ukraine will most likely see a return to the 2006 election results with Party of Regions expected to be a good position to form the next governing coalition. Party of Regions will be in a strong position to seek change Ukraine’s Constitution and implement a European Parliamentary system of governance that would leave Victor Yushchenko powerless and out in the cold.
Yushchenko has made a serious error of political judgment, one that will see a quick end to his Political career.
Yulia Tymoshenko, who is expected to be the second highest polling party, free from past constraints and coalition agreements, is expected to support constitutional reform that would see Victor Yushchenko lose all power and face impeachment.