Ukraine’s embattled President, Viktor Yushchenko, is convinced that he will win Ukraine’s next Presidential and Parliamentary elections.
With a support rating of less then 4% the only way Yushchenko can only survive the first round of voting is if the elections are rigged or he has signed a pact with the devil and sold Ukraine’s soul.
His Party “Our Ukraine” support rating has slumped over Yushchenko’s term of office. In 2006 they had 14% of the vote. In 2007 they merged with the People’s Self-Defence Party and their combined vote remained at 14% (Peoples Self Defence Party where estimated to have 5% support which represents a decline in support for Our Ukraine by a corresponding 5 percentage points).
Current opinion polls place Yushchenko on 3.5% and Our Ukraine below 3%
If fresh parliamentary elections are held Our Ukraine, under Yuschenko’s leadership, is likely to lose outright.
Our Ukraine, ignoring calls for Yushchenko to resign, has called on the Prime-minister Yulia Tymoshchenko to renounce her intention to nominate for the Presidency or resign.
Yuschenko’s nomination for a second term of office will undermine support for Arseniy Yateniuk’s newly created “Y-Front for change” party.
In a second round of voting Yushchenko’s supporters, in a runoff between Yulia Tymochenko and Viktor Yanukovych, will split giving Yanukovych the the winning edge in the forthcoming presidential elections.
Next month will be a decisive moment in Yushchenko’s fortune.
Yushchenko has called on Our Ukraine’s Ministers to resign, undermining Ukraine’s government in order for Yushchenko to seek to dismiss Ukraine’s democratically elected parliament for a second time and hold another round of Parliamentary elections in October (a date that Yuschenko has rejected for the holding of Ukraine’s Presidential elections).
On July 1 Ukraine will hold a special session of the parliament before it moves into Summer recess. Yushchenko has until August to come up with a valid excuse to terminate the authority of the Parliament and dismiss the Government.
The Parliament is scheduled to reconvene after the summer break on September 1 by which time Yushchenko would have lost authority to call fresh Parliamentary elections. (Article 90 of Ukraine’s constitution)
Presidential elections are scheduled for January 17, 2010