Poll: Game over with less than 18 days remaining

December 30, 2009

The latest opinion poll to be published shows no change in the expected outcome of the election.

With less than 18 days remaining before thefirst round election there is little to no chance or expectation thatthe outcome of the election will change. 

According to a survey carried out by the SOCIS Center for Social and Marketing Research Viktor Yanukovych has 31% support. Yulia Tymoshenko remains in second place with 16.7%

The next highest candidate Sergiy Tigipko is 9 percentage points behind Tymoshenko who is on 7.9% followed by  Front for Change leader Arseniy Yatseniuk on  5.0% ,

Incumbent President Viktor Yuschenko is in an unwinnable position with only 4.0% ,  one percentage point ahead of communist party leader  Petro Symonenko who has 3.1%  support and Parliamentary Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn even less on 2.7% .

FOM Ukraine has reported that 88% of Ukrainians disapprove of President Viktor Yuschenko’s performance.

Under Ukraine’s two round first-past-the-post voting system only the two highest polling candidates can progress to the second round of voting, a gap of 9% is virtually impossible to breach. 

Lord of War: Hrytsenko proposes absolute presidential authority on deployment of armed forces

December 28, 2009

Presidential hopeful and Chairman the parliament’s committee for national security and minister for defense Anatoliy Hrytsenko has proposed that the President of Ukraine be granted absolute authority over the deployment of Ukraine’s Armed forces side stepping the requirement for parliamentary consent.

Currently Ukraine’s constitution requires any decision to deploy Ukrainian troops abroad to be determined by law and the consent of Ukraine’s parliament.  The changes proposed by  Hrytsenko are alarming to say the least.   What would have happened in 2008 if Yushchenko has such all encompassing authority?

According to recent polls Anatoliy Hrytsenko, a member of Our Ukraine who is running against incumbent President Viktor Yushchenko, has less then 1% support.

Poll: Yushchenko set to fall from tree

December 28, 2009

Interfax is reporting a poll conducted by FOM-Ukraine.

The poll shows that there will be a run-off ballot between Viktor Yanukovych and Yulia Tymoshenko.  More importantly it confirms that incumbent president, Viktor Yushchenko, is set to fall off the political tree even though Yuschenko himself thinks he is ripe and fit to make an Orange vodka cocktail but vote-rigging will prevent him from being elected.

Yuschenko’s support was so low it did not even register in the published list. It would have to be the biggest vote fraud in history if he thinks he can bounce back from less then 3%.

Candidate Percentage
Yanukovych 28.5%
Tymoshenko 14.4%
Tigipko 6.0%
Yatseniuk 6.0%
Symonenko 4.8%
Lytvyn 3.2%
Others 7.1%
Will not vote 5.9%
Against All 8.5%
Undecided 15.6%
sum 100.0%

The poll of 1,000 with an estimated error rate of 3.5% was conducted between December 17 and December 22.

Three weeks left to Ukraine’s Carnivale before the big audition

December 27, 2009

Another week and little change expectations.  The deadline withdrawal from the ballot has expired and ballot papers are being printed in prepared for the big event.

January 2 is the last day for public opinion polls to be published. As the campaign moves into it’s last phase. The tent will be set-up and the side show of attraction to the man on the street opens its doors.

It is a bitter cold winter The Orthodox Christmas is on January 7 and the old New year 7 days following on January 14. and the election day audition three days after that.

Viktor Yushchenko is trying to  oust Yatseniuk from running in a desperate attempt to bolster his fledgling support, even thou Yatseniuk has better chance of being elected then  Yushchenko who remains the most despised President in Ukraine’s modern history.

Four Weeks remaining in Ukraine’s latest cold war

December 20, 2009

Ukraine has four weeks remaining in the first round Presidential campaign.

The polls have shown little change in voters support with Viktor Yanukovych and Yulia Tymoshenko remaining favorites to progress to the second round run-off ballot.

There is concern that the election may still falter as the government has not yet transferred money to the Central Election authority to pay for the election estimated to cost over 100 million dollars with a total campaign cost of over one billion dollars.

Viktor Yushchenko has threatened to veto the 2010 budget giving rise to further possible disruption to the elections process.

Traditionally Ukraine’s Presidential elections are held in October but Viktor Yushchenko was desperate to cling on to office for a long as he could and he forced Ukraine into holding the election in the midst of winter.

Ukraine is facing one the coldest winters in recent history with temperatures dropping to blow minus 20 degrees which might see a lower then expected turnout on election day if the cold spell continues into the new year and beyond January.

In 28 days time Yushchenko will face the moment of truth and judgement by the people of Ukraine with most commentators holding the view that Yushchenko’s presidency is about to come to an abrupt end. .

Any last minute upset or attempt by Yushchenko to cancel the election will trigger a chain of events that Ukraine and the world might yet live to regret.

Yatseniuk under pressure to withdraw from race to bolster Yushchenko’s support

December 20, 2009

Yushchenko is applying the pressure to have Yatseniuk pull out of the presidential race. Even though Yatseniuk has better chances of surviving the election then Yushchenko.

Yushchenko yesterday called on the Ukrainian “Democrats” to support a single candidate for president.

The Forum of Ukrainian Nationalists has addressed to presidential candidates Oleh Tiahnybok, Yuriy Kostenko and Arseniy Yatseniuk to withdraw their candidates in favor Viktor Yuschenko.

Yesterday Yatseniuk stated that he would not withdraw from the race. Nor should he. Yushchenko has a lower support rating then Yatseniuk
All the polls say that Yushchenko is not able to win a contest against Yanukovych. Ukrainians no longer trust or respect him. It would make more sense if Yushchenko resigned and offered his support to Yatseniuk.

Meanwhile Yulia Tymoshenko is thinking on similar lines “All our democratic candidates, who will participate in the first roundif they are so eager to do this… In the second round, I am sure thatYanukovych will be there, I would ask all them to unite and support asingle candidate from the democratic sector, to oppose the loomingevil, which is already hanging over Ukraine,” she said.

Yushchenko’s Exit Plan: Jump before being pushed

December 19, 2009

Not to be outdone by Yulia Tymoshenko, Ukraine’s embattled president, Viktor Yushchenko, has indicated that Ukrainian “Democrats” may consider nomination of a single presidential candidate.

Exactly who Yushchenko considers to be part of the “Ukrainian democrats”  is not clear let alone what process they will take in deciding to nominate only one candidate.

It is a bit late to decide this issue now.  The deadline for nomination withdrawals is December 21.  If candidates withdraw before that date they can get their deposit back after that date they forfeit their 2.5 million deposit.

Yushchenko’s support rating has slumped to a low 3.5% and a recent survey conducted by U.S.-based International Foundation for Electoral Systemsand financed by the United States Agency for International Development lists Yushchenko with the highest negative rating (83%) of all candidates.

The report in the media gives rise that Yushchenko, with only 4 weeks remaining, may be seeking an exit plan, a way to pull out of the election before he faces total embarrassment and humiliation by losing in the first round of the election.