State of the nation – The Yushchenko years.

December 18, 2009

Voters unhappy with choices, want jobs

Source: Kyiv post
 
As the first presidential election in five years approaches on Jan. 17,pollsters and experts warn that voters will be bombarded by a sea ofskewed sociological survey results intended to sway their choices.Often, such bogus polls seek to persuade voters that their preferredcandidate has no chance of making it into a second-round runoff on Feb.7, thereby encouraging votes for one of the front-runners. With suchspin doctoring at play, Ukrainians need reliable surveys. The graphsand tables show polls conducted on Nov. 21-29 by trusted sources. Thesurveys were conducted by U.S.-based International Foundation forElectoral Systems and financed by the United States Agency forInternational Development. The data are representative of the nationalpopulation of Ukraine and have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5percent. All the interviews were conducted in Ukrainian and Russian bythe Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS).

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Poll: Liittle movement 30 days before election

December 18, 2009

Research and Branding have published their December poll.

This survey was a sample rate of 3,083 respondents with an estimated margin for error of 1.8%

Candidate Dec Nov Oct Monthly Swing
V. Yanukovich 33.40% 32.40% 31.40% 1.0%
Y. Timoshenko 16.60% 16.30% 18.40% 0.3%
S.Tigipko 7.40% 4.40% 3.60% 3.0%
A. Yatsenyuk 6.70% 6.10% 8.90% 0.6%
V. Litvin 4.10% 4.50% 2.30% -0.4%
V. Yuschenko 3.80% 3.50% 3.50% 0.3%
P. Simonenko 3.40% 3.80% 3.50% -0.4%
Others
Against All
Undecided
Will not vote
75.40% 71.00% 71.60%

Run-Off Ballot

Candidate Dec
V. Yanukovich 46.70%
Y. Timoshenko 30.00%
Against All 13.20%
Undecided 6.50%
Will not vote 3.60%
100.00%

Voter Participation

Will certainly vote 65.80% 67.00% 55.90%
Will most likely vote 22.00% 19.70% 24.60%
Have not decided yet 7.80% 7.80% 10.10%
Will most unlikely vote 1.60% 2.70% 3.70%
Will certainly not vote 2.80% 2.80% 5.70%

This poll indicates a consolidation of votes (as expected) with the number of undecided decreasing. The participation rate of 87.8% if relatively high. With less then 30 days to go until the first ballot little change is expected in the outcome of the election.