Doing deals with minor candidates

January 9, 2010

There is a lot of talk around that this deal or that deal has been made. Whilst deals are possible in seeking political positions or appointments the fact is they can not deliver. Most do not have loyal natural constituencies. They can not direct their supporters to transfer their votes.

Tigipko, who is expected to come in third behind Tymoshenko and Yanukovych, support base will split between Tymoshenko and Yanukovych in the second round. The same with the Communist and to a lessor degree Yatseniuk.

Yastensenik can not transfer his support to Yushchenko many would opt to support Tymoshenko is he pulled out at the last minute. Yushchenko himself can not direct his own support base which in the second round is expected to also split down the middle in the second round

Example “Split analysis”

Using the survey conducted by U.S.-based International Foundation for Electoral Systems and financed by the United States Agency for International Development. and a conservative split based between Yanukovych, Tymoshenko and Against All

Candidate Poll Split to Yanu kovych Split to Tymo shenko Split to Against All
Viktor Yanukovych 31.2% 100.0% 31.2%
Yulia Tymoshenko 19.1% 100.0% 19.1%
Serhiy Tihipko 4.8% 40.0% 1.9% 40.0% 1.9% 20.0% 1.0%
Arseniy Yatsenyuk 4.7% 25.0% 1.2% 50.0% 2.4% 25.0% 1.2%
Volodymyr Lytvyn 2.8% 30.0% 0.8% 50.0% 1.4% 20.0% 0.6%
Viktor Yushchenko 3.5% 20.0% 0.7% 50.0% 1.8% 30.0% 1.1%
Petro Symonenko 3.8% 40.0% 1.5% 30.0% 1.1% 30.0% 1.1%
Inna Bohoslovska 0.7% 40.0% 0.3% 40.0% 0.3% 20.0% 0.1%
Oleh Tyahnybok 1.8% 5.0% 0.1% 75.0% 1.4% 20.0% 0.4%
Anatoliy Hrytsenko 0.7% 20.0% 0.1% 60.0% 0.4% 20.0% 0.1%
Others 2.4% 40.0% 1.0% 40.0% 1.0% 20.0% 0.5%
Against all 100% 7.9%
Will Not vote
Not sure
 sum 83.4% 38.8% 30.7% 13.9%
Total of Vote 46.6% 36.8% 16.7%

This is not a prediction but it does show the extent of the split in voters’ intentions in a possible second round outcome based on the primary round vote. There never is a 100% transfer rate from one candidate to the another. If you wish you can do your own “what if’s” to determine the max min split in order to produce a change in the result.  Tymoshenko would have to improve her primary vote and work hard on securing a higher percentage split then that allocated above in order to make up the 10 percent shortfall.  Don’t rely on the “Not sure” 11.6% as they would even out across the board to produce an expected participation rate of around 83% and as such not listed in the above split analysis.


Seven days remaining: All over but for the shouting

January 9, 2010

With seven days until the January 17 Ukrainian Presentism election there has been no catalytic event or shit in public opinion.

There is no real contest at this stage of the election.

Viktor Yanukovych is assured to progress into the second round with Yulia Tymoshenko in second place.

There has been a lot of political banter about a deal between Viktor Yushchenko and Viktor Yanukovych with Yushchenko seeking a safe haven for his “leading lights” team of political elite to ensure that they still have a job come February.

Yushchenko is set to be the biggest loser with 17 candidates running against him. 16 candidates including Yushchenko will not make the grade and will fall well below the 10% mark and at bes5 manage to secure 5%.

Yushchenko has tried hard to force other candidates to pull out in the hope that it would bolster his fledgling support. Even if he managed to have Yatseniuk and Hrensko pull and their supporter’s to back him (a big ask given the extent of Ukraine’s resentment and disillusionment in Yushchenko’s term of office) with a total of only 12% Yushchenko would still be below Yulia Tymoshenko. Even if Ukraine had a preferential voting system Yushchenko would lose out.

In theory it is possible under a preferential voting system for Tigipko to come up the middle provided that Yushchenko and his associates backed him.

But the fact remains that under Ukraine’s flawed two round first-past-the0-post voting system only the two highest polling candidates will make it to the second round.

Yushchenko supporters are getting desperate and like something out of scene from Captain Corelli’s Mandolin Yushchenko’s faithful have turned ugly and have began attacking their past allies, engaging in a seek and destroy mission as they face inevitable defeat. Some are now even denying that they supported Yushchenko, such is the curse of Peter when he denied knowing Jesus when the cock crowed thrice.

Their attack on Taras Kuzio and poor Gene Nelson (a rather low minded insignificant, if not confused, social commentatos who once shared the same bed and love of pig fat delights) has been appalling to watch. Gene become the victim of the latest hunt attack.

It’s getting nasty out there as the President’s faithful foot soldiers have stooped to the lowest of lows attacking anyone and everyone that dares criticize their beloved leader or who portrays him in any way negatively. The extent of lies, abuse and denial they have resorted to is beyond belief. A sharp reminder of what the end of the world may become like as man turns on man and civilization breaks down into a “Lord of the flies” tribal culture.

Thankful these extremist diaspora and a few other supporters represent a very small minority less then 0.5% and most are based in the USA unaware that the cold war ended decades ago.