The districts of shame: Missing protocols

February 9, 2010

24 hours  after the pols closed the following Obslasts/Districts have not submitted their polling return protocols. (What is the hold up? why does it  take to long to count a few votes ?- its not a difficult task)

Region District No Percentage counted
Crimea 1 94.44%
3 83.13%
6 90.99%
9 56.41%
10 97.43%
Volyn Oblast 19 98.66%
Zaporizhia Oblast 77 98.87%
Kyiv Oblast 93 98.33%
Luhansk Oblast 109 87.05%
110 91.66%
Lviv Oblast 120 95.28%
Odesa Oblast 141 98.28%
145 97.84%
Kherson Oblast 189 90.41%
Cherkasy Oblast 203 93.49%

Back to the future: Yesterdays villain becomes today’s hero

February 8, 2010

Victor Yanukovych, contender in the 2004 Presidential  election and former Prime-minister of Ukraine 2006-2007 has become President elect  winning over 48% of the national vote three percent more then his rival the hero of the Orange revolution Yulia Tymoshenko.

If there is a villain in this election it was out-going disgraced president Viktor Yushchenko.  Yushchenko received only 5.45% of the vote in the first round of the presidential elections.  He is widely seen as a failed president who divided Ukraine and did not live up to expectations.  Yushchenko demonstrated the futility of the presidential system. His term of office will be remembered as a complete failure.

If Tymoshenko has anyone to blame for her loss it is Yushchenko.  His inability to accept the will of the people and the majority opinion of his own political alliance was his downfall.  He espoused the words of democracy yet his policies and actions where far from democratic.  Yushchenko had advocated an Against all option and 2% more voters then the first round did just that.  Yushchenko destroyed any sense of unity and set the clock back 5 years or more.

Viktor Yanukovych who claimed he had originally won the Presidential election in 2004 received the same level of vote that he had recorded in the ill-fated 2004 second round giving credence to the belief that the 2004 ballot was not as flawed as some made out.

The parade may be over but the entertainment and celebrations has just began.

Losing the battle but not yet the war.

Tymoshenko is expect to concede defeat.  Yanukovych may have won this round but Tymoshenko did well to receive the vote she did.  She can hold her head up high and continue to maintain a presence in Ukraine’s political scene for some time to come.

Circus Parade comes to an end: 99.45% counted – Yanukovych by 3%

February 8, 2010

IN what tuned out to be a closer match then expected Viktor Yanukovych, former prime minister and presidential hopeful in the 2004 “Orange revolution” has won the 2010 Presidential election  by a 3% margin.

As of 20:30

Vote Percentage
Viktor Yanukovych 12,372,737 48.81%
Yulia Tymoshenko 11,562,112 45.61%
Against All 1,108,582 4.37%
Informal 1.19%
Participation 25,346,432 69.30%

Turn out 2% more punters voted this round then in the first round event

The  outcome was in line with exit polls closest margin and in spite various protests by Yulia Tymoshenko Yanukovych, runner up in the final 2004 contest  is expected to be declared the winner of the 2010 parade. 

The conduct of the election has received the all important stamp of approval by the OSCE.

There will not be a repeat of the events of 2004.  The judges decision is final and no correspondence will be entered into to.  Any attempt to overturn the result will fail and will only cause more harm and resentment then good.  Falling below 50% of the vote Yanukovych’s win can not be seen as a total victory.  

Virtual Election map

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Limited mandate: Time for reflection and cooperation not confrontation

February 8, 2010
Victor Yanukoych’s slender majority is not an absolute mandate he failed to break over the 50% threshold.   Tymoshenko’s’  support is never the less impressive and indicates the extent that Ukraine is divided.

Yanukovych must acknowledge the support given to Tymoshenko’s candidacy and reconsider his policy of confrontation and the proposed dismissal of Ukraine’s parliament.  He must make every effort to find common ground and to once again join Tymoshenko at the negotiating table and seek a strategic alliance that is in Ukraine’s best interest.

Yanukovych has a limited mandate only.   He can only claim the right to represent 33% of Ukraine (48% of 69%).

In making a conciliatory jester Tymoshenko must also concede the election which all the exit polls had  confirmed Yanukovych’s slender win.

With Yushchenko removed from office there is hope.  Hope that Ukraine can find a way forward without another round of elections and ongoing political confrontation.

Poll: 75% counted Yanukovych still holds the lead – Tymoshenko’s has nothing to be ashamed of.

February 8, 2010

The morning after 6:00AM

With Over 80% of protocols recorded Viktor Yanukovych on 48.68% has maintained his lead over Tymoshenko who has 45.67%.  A closer then expected margin of 3%. The number of participants is estimated to be 65%. The Crimean vote (33.62% counted) is still to be included. All other regions have over 67% registered.

Its all over but for the declaration of the poll.  Tymoshenko will maintain that that she had been cheated out of office. The reality is she did well to secure as many votes as she had given the extent of competition against her.

The outcome of the election will give cause for Yanukovych to think twice before pursuing a fresh parliamentary election.  Yanukovych could not hold on to the 50% psychological victory.  His win is not a triumph but as they say winners are grinner’s and he will be sworn into office.  There will be no Maidan or Orange revolution II.  Sure Yulia will scream and continue to try and  undermine Yanukovych’s victory But she will not win any overwhelming support if she does.

The only loser is Yushchenko, His dwindling support base did not follow his lead or advice the against all vote (4.48%) showed little change.

The closer then expected result, and the fact that Ukraine remains divided as ever, is a clear indication that the presidential system has once again failed to unite Ukraine.

Over one billion dollars has been spent on this election and what has Ukraine got to show for it? Its future is just as cloudy as it was before. The only difference is that Yushchenko has been removed from office and his opponent in 2004 has won the election by a slender but decisive margin.

The challenge and test of character will be if Yanukovych can reach out and negotiate a successful transition and constitutional change that would see Ukraine put an end to the abuse of Presidential authority and embrace a European parliamentary system?

If there is to be another round of national elections it must only occur following the implementation of reform.

Virtual Election map

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Back to the future: Yanukovych still on track with 70% of the vote

February 8, 2010
Count Update: (8-Feb-2010 4:30AM)

Over 70% of  protocols counted Yanukoych extending his lead as more voptes from tjhe populous East are registered.  Yanukovych (49.08%) Tymosnenko (45.27%)  Against All (4.49%) Informal (1.15%)

Total votes counted. 16,940,350 (46.31%)

Count Update: (8-Feb-2010 4:15AM)

Tymoshenko has opicked up some ground in the last hour but this is due to outstadning protocols in Western being submitted later then in teh East.  There is still a lot of Crimra and Luhanst votes to be registered in the East which will see the scales tip back in Yanukovych’s favour.  Current split Yanukovych (48.99%) Tymsohenko (45.37%)

Count Update: (8-Feb-2010 3:15AM)

With just over 52% of the vote counted the turn-out looks like being lower then in the first round at approximately  60%-62%  Yanukovych has been showing a consistent lead at 49.65% and Tymoshenko on 44.73%

A scan of the protocols registered shows that Western Ukraine votes are taking a little longer to  be registered but they will not make up the short fall.   The estimated number of Against All (4.51%) and informal ballots  (1.12%) is on target.

Total number of ballot papers recorded to date is 13,007,237 (32.81% of enrolled)

The outcome is as expected and in line with our lower end estimation (5%) – See our minor candidate split table analysis which challenged the Angus Read KIIS poll. The lower end is due to the lower then expected turn-out. When the count is finalised we will produce some swing charts comparing the first round with the final round and also with the 2004 Presidential election. so you can see where the vote changed.

Virtual Election map

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Back to the future: Yanukovych set to win – Official Result start to trickle in.

February 7, 2010

 Exit Polls have already called the election not the official results are confirming what we all know.  Yanukovych to be Ukraine’s next President.  Yanukovych is expected to exceed the 50% margin with a Comfortable lead.

Live results now posted on Virtual Election map

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