The districts of shame: Missing protocols

February 9, 2010

24 hours  after the pols closed the following Obslasts/Districts have not submitted their polling return protocols. (What is the hold up? why does it  take to long to count a few votes ?- its not a difficult task)

Region District No Percentage counted
Crimea 1 94.44%
3 83.13%
6 90.99%
9 56.41%
10 97.43%
Volyn Oblast 19 98.66%
Zaporizhia Oblast 77 98.87%
Kyiv Oblast 93 98.33%
Luhansk Oblast 109 87.05%
110 91.66%
Lviv Oblast 120 95.28%
Odesa Oblast 141 98.28%
145 97.84%
Kherson Oblast 189 90.41%
Cherkasy Oblast 203 93.49%
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Circus Parade comes to an end: 99.45% counted – Yanukovych by 3%

February 8, 2010

IN what tuned out to be a closer match then expected Viktor Yanukovych, former prime minister and presidential hopeful in the 2004 “Orange revolution” has won the 2010 Presidential election  by a 3% margin.

As of 20:30

Vote Percentage
Viktor Yanukovych 12,372,737 48.81%
Yulia Tymoshenko 11,562,112 45.61%
Against All 1,108,582 4.37%
Informal 1.19%
Participation 25,346,432 69.30%

Turn out 2% more punters voted this round then in the first round event

The  outcome was in line with exit polls closest margin and in spite various protests by Yulia Tymoshenko Yanukovych, runner up in the final 2004 contest  is expected to be declared the winner of the 2010 parade. 

The conduct of the election has received the all important stamp of approval by the OSCE.


There will not be a repeat of the events of 2004.  The judges decision is final and no correspondence will be entered into to.  Any attempt to overturn the result will fail and will only cause more harm and resentment then good.  Falling below 50% of the vote Yanukovych’s win can not be seen as a total victory.  

Virtual Election map


Click here to view


Early Exit Polls are predicting 5% to 8% win to Yanukovych as expected.

February 7, 2010

Inter Tv is reporting Yanukovych winning by a margin of 5-8%  Which is the margin we have predicted all along.  Official data is expected to start coming in in the next hour.

Update:

Interfax-Ukraine exit poll: Yanukovych leads among voters in Kyiv, regional capitals
Today at 20:32 | Interfax-Ukraine  Kyivpost

Victor Yanukovych is leading among voters in regional capitals and thecities of Kyiv and Sevastopol, according to an exit poll conducted byInterfax-Ukraine reporters on site at polling stations.

According to the poll, Yanukovych received 51% of votes, whileTymoshenko got 41% with 8% votes against both presidential candidates.

A total of 3,100 people took part in the poll in 23 regional capitals, and the cities of Kyiv and Sevastopol.

National Exit Poll: Yanukovych has been elected the next Ukraine’s president

Today at 19:56 | Staff reports Kyiv Post

 

National Exit Poll 2010 found that 48.7 percent of voters chose Yanukovych, the Party of Regions leader.

Incumbent prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko finished close with 45.5percent of the vote, according to the exit poll. The DemocraticInitiatives’ National Exit Poll is a single Western-funded poll and isconsidered to be the most independent of all.


Moldova: Election maths

July 31, 2009

Preliminary Analysis of last Wednesday’s Moldovan election highlights some of the issues with the D’Hondt System particularity when it involves a representation threshold.

Comparison between the April election and the July election shows a consolidation of votes with fewer minor parties running for election. In April there were 12 parties plus independents. In July only 8 parties contested the election with The Green party being the only new constant.

The consolidation of the vote and reduction in the number of disenfranchised voters has a significant effect on the outcome of the election.

In April, Four political parties received sufficient votes to cross the 7% representative threshold, together they represented 84.8% of the total vote. The other minor parties collectively represented the balance of 15.2%

In July, Five political parties representing 95.8% crossed the new representation threshold of 5% and 4.2% were denied representation – a shift of 11%

Statistically in a re-run election the ruling party loses 4% to 6% of the vote. Moldova was no exception. However the ruling party suffered a 12 seat loss.

The ruling Communist Party of the Republic of Moldova (CPRM) suffered a swing of 4.79%. In April they received 49.48% of the vote and in July 44.69%. This translated into 60 seats in the April election and only 48 seats in July.

The reason for the dramatic loss in representation was not so much as the 4.79% swing but more to do with the percentage of parties that crossed the threshold. In April the CPRM benefited from minor opposition parties low vote.

The representation threshold distorts the proportionality of the number of seats to the percentage of votes. The less the percentage of disenfranchised voters the more accurate reflection of the electorate in the overall results.

In Moldova the political parties and or voters realised that they needed to consolidate their support base in order to win representation.


The Swings and shifts of support

The Communist Party of Moldova lost 4.79% which was translated into a loss of 12 seats mainly because three additional parties – Democratic Party of Moldova, Christian Democratic People’s Party, Social Democratic Party (representing a total of 9.7% in April) crossed the 7% representation threshold. In April their votes were wasted in July they counted.

The biggest gain was the Democratic Party of Moldova (+9.57%) followed by Liberal Democratic Party of Moldova (+4.14%)

“Moldova Noastra (Our Moldova)” Alliance recorded a swing of -2.42% against them as did the Christian Democratic People’s Party (-1.79%) and the Social Democratic Party (-1.18%)

July 2009 % Vote Swing Seats % seats
Communists Party 44.69% -4.79% 48 47.52%
Liberal Democratic Party 16.57% 4.14% 18 17.82%
Liberal Party 14.68% 1.55% 15 14.85%
Democratic Party 12.54% 9.57% 13 12.87%
Our Moldova Alliance 7.35% -2.42% 7 6.93%
Christian Democratic People’s Party 1.91% -1.79% 0
Social Democratic Party 1.86% -1.18% 0
Green Alliance 0.41% 0.41% 0
100.00% 101
April 2009 % Vote Seats % seats
Communists Party 49.48% 60 59.41%
Liberal Democratic Party 12.43% 15 14.85%
Liberal Party 13.13% 15 14.85%
Democratic Party 2.97%
Our Moldova Alliance 9.77% 11 10.89%
Christian Democratic People’s Party 3.70%
Social Democratic Party 3.04%
Centrist Union 2.75%
Social-Political Movement 1.01%
Conservative Party 0.29%
United Moldova 0.22%
Republican Party 0.09%
Independents 1.12%
100.00% 101


Moldova: 4.72% Swing against the Communist Party in re-run election

July 30, 2009

The ruling Communist Party of Moldova, with 98% of the vote counted, is showing a swing of less then 5% down from 49.48% to 44.76% in the re-run election

Statistically in any re-run ballot there is a 4% to 6% swing against the government, Moldova is proving no exception.

It also raises questions as to the likely result on the second round of Ukraine’s 2004 presidential ballot. Viktor Yushchenko, following the re-run presidential election, won 52% of the vote indicating that he had really only won 48% of the second round ballot.

Source: alegeri.md

Table updated: 4 August 2009 (Final Results)

Party % Vote Swing Seats
Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova 44.69% -4.79% 48
Liberal Democratic Party of Moldova 16.57% 4.14% 18
Liberal Party 14.68% 1.55% 15
Democratic Party of Moldova 12.54% 9.57% 13
“Moldova Noastra (Our Moldova)” Alliance 7.35% -2.42% 7
Christian Democratic People’s Party 1.91% -1.79% 0
Social Democratic Party 1.86% -1.18% 0
Ecological Party of Moldova (Green Alliance) 0.41% 0.41% 0
100.00% 101

Ukraine Parliamentary Elections – Swing Analysis 2006 to 2007

October 6, 2007









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Region PoR BYuT OU-PSD CPU BL SPU
Автономна Республіка Крим 2.98% 0.38% 0.61% 3.08% 2.52% 0.71%
Вінницька 4.41% 16.72% -1.41% 1.53% 0.85% -12.16%
Волинська 2.23% 13.66% -0.70% 0.49% 1.29% -2.18%
Дніпропетровська 3.17% 5.89% 1.03% 1.97% 2.21% -2.44%
Донецька -1.58% 1.45% 0.22% 2.91% 0.52%

4.28%

Закарпатська

1.12% 8.56% 5.32% 0.50% 2.50% -0.11%
Запорізька 4.22% 3.72% -0.60% 2.97% 3.40% -0.65%
Івано-Франківська 1.01% 20.28% -8.28% 0.19% -0.07% -1.48%
Київська 3.17% 8.84% 3.49% 0.68% 2.32% -8.02%
Кіровоградська 6.89% 7.44% 2.95% 0.35% 0.45% -6.93%
Луганська -0.79% 1.39% -0.32% 4.05% 1.67% 0.08%
Львівська 1.17% 17.34% -1.93% 0.33% 0.33% -1.56%
Миколаївська 4.06% 4.71% 0.24% 1.85% 2.00% -2.40%
Одеська 4.71% 3.86% 0.04% 2.98% 1.34% 0.96%
Полтавська 4.37% 11.04% 1.32% 1.05% 2.65% -9.76%
Рівненська 3.17% 19.66% -4.71% 0.54% 1.67% -4.39%
Сумська 4.76% 11.20% 1.35% 0.45% 1.05% -8.60%
Тернопільська 1.00% 17.08% 1.01% 0.25% 0.15% -2.54%
Харківська -2.09% 3.68% 2.19% 3.71% 2.23% -0.12%
Херсонська 4.09% 5.63% -0.69% 2.33% 0.28% -2.32%
Хмельницька 4.06% 12.59% 0.08% 0.89% 2.23% -7.49%
Черкаська 4.83% 8.78% 3.07% 0.49% 1.90% -9.12%
Чернівецька 4.07% 15.83% -6.73% 0.60% -0.03% -0.72%
Чернігівська 5.12% 8.02% 4.56% 1.19% 1.21% -9.94%
м.Київ 3.28% 6.96% -0.05% 1.57% 3.20% -3.90%
м.Севастополь 0.27% 0.48% -0.10% 5.54% 0.90% 1.90%
3BO 5.30% 15.74% -14.45% 0.84% 0.79% -1.01%
sum 2.23% 8.42% 0.20% 1.73% 1.52% -2.83%


Ukraine Parliamentary Elections – Swing Analysis 2006 to 2007

October 6, 2007








Region PoR BYuT OU-PSD CPU BL SPU
Автономна Республіка Крим 2.98% 0.38% 0.61% 3.08% 2.52% 0.71%
Вінницька 4.41% 16.72% -1.41% 1.53% 0.85% -12.16%
Волинська 2.23% 13.66% -0.70% 0.49% 1.29% -2.18%
Дніпропетровська 3.17% 5.89% 1.03% 1.97% 2.21% -2.44%
Донецька -1.58% 1.45% 0.22% 2.91% 0.52% 4.28%
Закарпатська 1.12% 8.56% 5.32% 0.50% 2.50% -0.11%
Запорізька 4.22% 3.72% -0.60% 2.97% 3.40% -0.65%
Івано-Франківська 1.01% 20.28% -8.28% 0.19% -0.07% -1.48%
Київська 3.17% 8.84% 3.49% 0.68% 2.32% -8.02%
Кіровоградська 6.89% 7.44% 2.95% 0.35% 0.45% -6.93%
Луганська -0.79% 1.39% -0.32% 4.05% 1.67% 0.08%
Львівська 1.17% 17.34% -1.93% 0.33% 0.33% -1.56%
Миколаївська 4.06% 4.71% 0.24% 1.85% 2.00% -2.40%
Одеська 4.71% 3.86% 0.04% 2.98% 1.34% 0.96%
Полтавська 4.37% 11.04% 1.32% 1.05% 2.65% -9.76%
Рівненська 3.17% 19.66% -4.71% 0.54% 1.67% -4.39%
Сумська 4.76% 11.20% 1.35% 0.45% 1.05% -8.60%
Тернопільська 1.00% 17.08% 1.01% 0.25% 0.15% -2.54%
Харківська -2.09% 3.68% 2.19% 3.71% 2.23% -0.12%
Херсонська 4.09% 5.63% -0.69% 2.33% 0.28% -2.32%
Хмельницька 4.06% 12.59% 0.08% 0.89% 2.23% -7.49%
Черкаська 4.83% 8.78% 3.07% 0.49% 1.90% -9.12%
Чернівецька 4.07% 15.83% -6.73% 0.60% -0.03% -0.72%
Чернігівська 5.12% 8.02% 4.56% 1.19% 1.21% -9.94%
м.Київ 3.28% 6.96% -0.05% 1.57% 3.20% -3.90%
м.Севастополь 0.27% 0.48% -0.10% 5.54% 0.90% 1.90%
3BO 5.30% 15.74% -14.45% 0.84% 0.79% -1.01%
sum 2.23% 8.42% 0.20% 1.73% 1.52% -2.83%