Poll: 75% counted Yanukovych still holds the lead – Tymoshenko’s has nothing to be ashamed of.

February 8, 2010

The morning after 6:00AM

With Over 80% of protocols recorded Viktor Yanukovych on 48.68% has maintained his lead over Tymoshenko who has 45.67%.  A closer then expected margin of 3%. The number of participants is estimated to be 65%. The Crimean vote (33.62% counted) is still to be included. All other regions have over 67% registered.

Its all over but for the declaration of the poll.  Tymoshenko will maintain that that she had been cheated out of office. The reality is she did well to secure as many votes as she had given the extent of competition against her.

The outcome of the election will give cause for Yanukovych to think twice before pursuing a fresh parliamentary election.  Yanukovych could not hold on to the 50% psychological victory.  His win is not a triumph but as they say winners are grinner’s and he will be sworn into office.  There will be no Maidan or Orange revolution II.  Sure Yulia will scream and continue to try and  undermine Yanukovych’s victory But she will not win any overwhelming support if she does.

The only loser is Yushchenko, His dwindling support base did not follow his lead or advice the against all vote (4.48%) showed little change.

The closer then expected result, and the fact that Ukraine remains divided as ever, is a clear indication that the presidential system has once again failed to unite Ukraine.

Over one billion dollars has been spent on this election and what has Ukraine got to show for it? Its future is just as cloudy as it was before. The only difference is that Yushchenko has been removed from office and his opponent in 2004 has won the election by a slender but decisive margin.

The challenge and test of character will be if Yanukovych can reach out and negotiate a successful transition and constitutional change that would see Ukraine put an end to the abuse of Presidential authority and embrace a European parliamentary system?

If there is to be another round of national elections it must only occur following the implementation of reform.

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First Round Presidential campaign comes to an end

January 15, 2010

Campaigning in the first round of the presidential election concludes tonight at 12 midnight Kyiv time

The election has been pretty much a non-event.  No real earth shattering poll busting events over the last two weeks, Certainly not enough to warrant a change of expectation in the outcome of the election.

There has been a lot of two and throw bantering, allegations of corruption, vote rigging and deals done.  The most dramatic being a deal between Yushchenko and Yanukovych to secure a place for Yushchenko’s men in the inevitable changing of the guard.

Come 12 midnight the campaigning comes to an end.  Well that depends if you consider a Party of Regions proposed rally on the 16th not part of the campaign.  Polls open at 8AM on Sunday January 17 and close at 6PM.  Early results should begin to be known at around 9 to 10PM with a good indication of the likely outcome by 4PM on the Monday.

Then it starts up again with the two highest polling candidates battling it out at the final round of voting scheduled for February 7.  Why the did not opt for a single round preferential voting system is anyone’s guess? A preferential system would have produced the same outcome and the results known in days as opposed waiting weeks and another round of voting.


Game, set, Match? Elections unlikely to be held before Spring as Yushchenko falls

November 2, 2008

There was an interesting news report on the voting of finances for the election. If you have not got the money then you can not hold an election.

It appears that although there is not a majority of members of Parliament prepared or able to support the formation of a parliamentary majority government, a majority are also not prepared to support the holding of fresh elections at this present time.

The President’s faction OU-PSD are not united in supporting Yushchenko’s destabilization plan.

There is nothing new about minority governments. As long as Julia has the support and vote of confidence of a majority of the Parliament Yushchenko is caught between two different points of reality.

The Constitutional “Imperative Mandate” and the will of individual members of parliament

In 2007 we saw Yushchenko unconstitutionally dismiss the parliament because individuals were being lobbied to support the government’s proposed constitutional reform which would have enabled Ukraine to adopt a democratic European style Parliamentary system of governance.

This year Yushchenko is has tried a different tact. Faced again with the possibility of Constitutional reform not to his liking Yushchenko had a majority of his faction agree to withdraw from the Coalition forcing a minority grouping to also abandon the faction.

But when you add the numbers of the disenfranchised and other minor parties such as the Lytvyn bloc and the Communists, there is a majority of members of parliament that disapprove of the president calling of a snap poll.

Unless the president can obtain the support of a majority members of parliament “Catch 22” no money, no election

Last year the US stepped in and offered to fund the election. Will they do the same this year? Unlikely as Yushchenko’s gamble is certain to back fire on him.

The main party to benefit from fresh elections is Party of Regions because they will secure control over Government. No one else wants to spend money and limited resources in fighting an election that will not resolve the going crisis of Yushchenko’s making.

Unless the President is hoping to form an alliance with Party of Regions what is his game plan other then to destabilize Ukraine and it’s economy?

Somehow, judging by the lack of activity on the streets, I think Yushchenko has called an election that no one really wants except him and Party of Regions, of course. It does not look like it will happen this year that’s for sure.

We can expect a spring election with the President also facing the people of Ukraine. This was the same deal sought back in 2007. Maybe in 2009 Yushchenko will have no other alternative but to except the compromise on offer as Ukraine’s economy begins to buckle under the strain, pressure will be brought to bear ion Yushchenko to accept a compromise and early presidential elections my be the deal maker. Either Way Yushchenko is the real loser in this round if not the match.


Game, set, Match? Elections unlikely to be held before Spring as Yushchenko falls

November 2, 2008

There was an interesting news report on the voting of finances for the election. If you have not got the money then you can not hold an election.

It appears that although there is not a majority of members of Parliament prepared or able to support the formation of a parliamentary majority government, a majority are also not prepared to support the holding of fresh elections at this present time.

The President’s faction OU-PSD are not united in supporting Yushchenko’s destabilization plan.

There is nothing new about minority governments. As long as Julia has the support and vote of confidence of a majority of the Parliament Yushchenko is caught between two different points of reality.

The Constitutional “Imperative Mandate” and the will of individual members of parliament

In 2007 we saw Yushchenko unconstitutionally dismiss the parliament because individuals were being lobbied to support the government’s proposed constitutional reform which would have enabled Ukraine to adopt a democratic European style Parliamentary system of governance.

This year Yushchenko is has tried a different tact. Faced again with the possibility of Constitutional reform not to his liking Yushchenko had a majority of his faction agree to withdraw from the Coalition forcing a minority grouping to also abandon the faction.

But when you add the numbers of the disenfranchised and other minor parties such as the Lytvyn bloc and the Communists, there is a majority of members of parliament that disapprove of the president calling of a snap poll.

Unless the president can obtain the support of a majority members of parliament “Catch 22” no money, no election

Last year the US stepped in and offered to fund the election. Will they do the same this year? Unlikely as Yushchenko’s gamble is certain to back fire on him.

The main party to benefit from fresh elections is Party of Regions because they will secure control over Government. No one else wants to spend money and limited resources in fighting an election that will not resolve the going crisis of Yushchenko’s making.

Unless the President is hoping to form an alliance with Party of Regions what is his game plan other then to destabilize Ukraine and it’s economy?

Somehow, judging by the lack of activity on the streets, I think Yushchenko has called an election that no one really wants except him and Party of Regions, of course. It does not look like it will happen this year that’s for sure.

We can expect a spring election with the President also facing the people of Ukraine. This was the same deal sought back in 2007. Maybe in 2009 Yushchenko will have no other alternative but to except the compromise on offer as Ukraine’s economy begins to buckle under the strain, pressure will be brought to bear ion Yushchenko to accept a compromise and early presidential elections my be the deal maker. Either Way Yushchenko is the real loser in this round if not the match.


President’s Faction Splits New members desert Our Ukraine

October 9, 2008

The President Viktor Yushchenko loses support with representatives of People’s Self-defence Party abandoning the Pro-presidential faction preferring to go to the polls alone.


Election to be a referendum on the President and his polices of divisonYushchenko hammers in the last nail into the Orange Revolution’s coffin

October 9, 2008

“The Democratic Coalition in name alone was destroyed by one thing – by human ambition. By the human ambition of a single person. By thirst for power, divergence of values, priority of personal interests over national interests.”

The coalition agreement and coalition concords are destroyed, economic reforms are not conducted, election-aimed calculations transformed into lust for presidential absolute power that yielded the highest inflation rates in Europe and deterioration of social standards – wages, retirement payments and many other social programs.

Block of Yulia Tymoshenko and Ukraine’s Parliamentary government have become hostage to the President. Yushchenko is ready to sacrifice everything: language, security, European integration in order to cling on to power.

Last night Viktor Yushchenko sacrificed the idealism and faith of those that supported his election and the Orange revolution. His party Our Ukraine have betrayed that revolution and Ukraine’s quest for democratic values. They were the party that caused the collapse of the Orange coalition in 2006. Last night Vicktor Yushchenko hammered in the last nail in the Orange revolution’s coffin and democracy in Ukraine.

Victor Yushchenko would not listen or share the belief of a majority of Ukrainians who want honest and democratic government. He has clung on to the past and struggled to hold on to soviet presidential authoritarian rule as opposed to embracing European values and a system of Parliamentary democracy in line with other European States. He has put his own personal interests and lust for power ahead of the long term democratic interests of Ukraine.

Instead of facing the people of Ukraine himself, instead of seeking to renew his fledgling mandate Victor Yushchenko has for the second time dismissed Ukraine’s Parliament.

The Elections which have been called for in December, the on set of winter, further undermine Ukraine’s economic development. At a time when the world is facing financial challanges as a result of the collapse of the United States financial system, Ukraine needs stable governance.

The election scheduled for December 7, will become a referendum on Yushchenko and Ukraine’s future direction. It can decide to forgo all democratic reforms and revert back to a soviet dictatorship under Presidential authority or it can embrace a European Parliamentary democracy.

The results of the election are unlikely to change but support for Yushchenko will cease. His term and effectiveness of leader of Ukraine will have come to an end.

The parliament and people of Ukraine must call for Yushchenko’s resignation or seek his impeachment. As long as Yushchenko remains in Office Ukraine will never be a democratic state holding true European democratic values.

The divisons and personal power struggle of the President must come to an end. Ukraine needs to send a clear message that Yushenko’s personal ambitions are not in Ukraine’s best interest. Ukraine must vote against the President, his Party Nasha Ukraina (Our Ukraine) and any supporter of the President.


Election to be a referendum on the President and his polices of divisonYushchenko hammers in the last nail into the Orange Revolution’s coffin

October 9, 2008

“The Democratic Coalition in name alone was destroyed by one thing – by human ambition. By the human ambition of a single person. By thirst for power, divergence of values, priority of personal interests over national interests.”

The coalition agreement and coalition concords are destroyed, economic reforms are not conducted, election-aimed calculations transformed into lust for presidential absolute power that yielded the highest inflation rates in Europe and deterioration of social standards – wages, retirement payments and many other social programs.

Block of Yulia Tymoshenko and Ukraine’s Parliamentary government have become hostage to the President. Yushchenko is ready to sacrifice everything: language, security, European integration in order to cling on to power.

Last night Viktor Yushchenko sacrificed the idealism and faith of those that supported his election and the Orange revolution. His party Our Ukraine have betrayed that revolution and Ukraine’s quest for democratic values. They were the party that caused the collapse of the Orange coalition in 2006. Last night Vicktor Yushchenko hammered in the last nail in the Orange revolution’s coffin and democracy in Ukraine.

Victor Yushchenko would not listen or share the belief of a majority of Ukrainians who want honest and democratic government. He has clung on to the past and struggled to hold on to soviet presidential authoritarian rule as opposed to embracing European values and a system of Parliamentary democracy in line with other European States. He has put his own personal interests and lust for power ahead of the long term democratic interests of Ukraine.

Instead of facing the people of Ukraine himself, instead of seeking to renew his fledgling mandate Victor Yushchenko has for the second time dismissed Ukraine’s Parliament.

The Elections which have been called for in December, the on set of winter, further undermine Ukraine’s economic development. At a time when the world is facing financial challanges as a result of the collapse of the United States financial system, Ukraine needs stable governance.

The election scheduled for December 7, will become a referendum on Yushchenko and Ukraine’s future direction. It can decide to forgo all democratic reforms and revert back to a soviet dictatorship under Presidential authority or it can embrace a European Parliamentary democracy.

The results of the election are unlikely to change but support for Yushchenko will cease. His term and effectiveness of leader of Ukraine will have come to an end.

The parliament and people of Ukraine must call for Yushchenko’s resignation or seek his impeachment. As long as Yushchenko remains in Office Ukraine will never be a democratic state holding true European democratic values.

The divisons and personal power struggle of the President must come to an end. Ukraine needs to send a clear message that Yushenko’s personal ambitions are not in Ukraine’s best interest. Ukraine must vote against the President, his Party Nasha Ukraina (Our Ukraine) and any supporter of the President.