Yushchenko’s pipe dream discussions

January 5, 2010

Embattled President Viktor Yushchenko is desperate to boost his fledgling support.

With less than 12 days remaining until the first round ballot Yushchenko is trying to force Anatoly Hrytsenko, Oleh Tyahnybok and Arseny Yatseniuk to pull out of the race and support a single “Our Ukraine” candidate.

Yushchenko released a media statement   last week stating that he is engaged in discussions with other members of “Our Ukraine” to have them pull out of the race in and to support a single “Our Ukraine” candidate, himself naturally.

The problem for Yushchenko is that they do not want to pull out and deny they are in discussions with Yushchenko  as he claimed.  They have paid their deposit and stood against Yushchenko, why should they pull out?

All 17 candidates have stood against him not to support him.

Yushchenko has a negativity rating of 83%, the highest negativity then any other candidate. Yushchenko is unelectable. Anatoly Hrytsenko, Oleh Tyahnybok and/or Arseny Yatseniuk would have a bter chance of winning the Yushchenko. If anyone should pull out it is Yushchenko.  Combined that have just under 12% which still is not enough to win the first round of voting.

If Ukraine had adopted a preferential voting system then the situation would have been different. The voters would have had an opportunity to decide who they want as head of state and Yushchenko would not have to go begging others to withdraw.

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Yushchenko loses Authority over Our Ukraine Parliamentary Party

June 30, 2009

Ukraine’s President, Viktor Yushenko has suffered a major blow and in relation to his authority over the parliamentary party of “Our Ukraine”

The participants in a congress of the People’s Union Our Ukraine party will not vote for recalling ministers representing this party from the Cabinet led by Yulia Tymoshenko, Vira Ulianchenko, the head of the party’s Council, said on Saturday.

“No, we will not [recall Our Ukraine ministers], because it is thanks to our ministers that our voice is heard there [in the government]” Ulianchenko told journalists before the congress. (Kyiv Post)

This is a major blow to Yushchenko whose strategy is to undermine Ukraine’s government in the hope of providing him justification for the dismissal of Ukraine’s democratically elected Parliament.

Yushchenko has until July 17 top call another snap Parliamentary election. The Congress of Our Ukraine had demanded that Yulia Tymoshcneko withdraw her intention to nominate of the presidency in 2010 or resign.

Yushenko’s strategy was to dismiss the Parliament in order to undermine Yulia Tymoshcneko’s Campaign for President in the hope that it would booster his chances of surviving the first round of voting.

Yushchenko’s support rating is less then 4%, with Yulia Tymoshyenbko, Aseniy Yatsenyuk and the Communist Party out polling the President, his chance of being reelected for a second term of office is very very slim. Even more so if Our Ukraine rejects his call to withdraw from the coalition.

Support for Our Ukraine, under the Viktor Yushchenko’s leadership, has collapsed from 15% in 2006 to less then 3% in 2009. If a fresh round of Parliamentary elections were held there is a real possibility that Our Ukraine would lose representation and influence.


Yuschenko has become delusional and out of touch with reality and the Ukrainian people

June 27, 2009

Ukraine’s embattled President, Viktor Yushchenko, is convinced that he will win Ukraine’s next Presidential and Parliamentary elections.

With a support rating of less then 4% the only way Yushchenko can only survive the first round of voting is if the elections are rigged or he has signed a pact with the devil and sold Ukraine’s soul.

His Party “Our Ukraine” support rating has slumped over Yushchenko’s term of office. In 2006 they had 14% of the vote. In 2007 they merged with the People’s Self-Defence Party and their combined vote remained at 14% (Peoples Self Defence Party where estimated to have 5% support which represents a decline in support for Our Ukraine by a corresponding 5 percentage points).

Current opinion polls place Yushchenko on 3.5% and Our Ukraine below 3%

If fresh parliamentary elections are held Our Ukraine, under Yuschenko’s leadership, is likely to lose outright.

Our Ukraine, ignoring calls for Yushchenko to resign, has called on the Prime-minister Yulia Tymoshchenko to renounce her intention to nominate for the Presidency or resign.

Yuschenko’s nomination for a second term of office will undermine support for Arseniy Yateniuk’s newly created “Y-Front for change” party.

In a second round of voting Yushchenko’s supporters, in a runoff between Yulia Tymochenko and Viktor Yanukovych, will split giving Yanukovych the the winning edge in the forthcoming presidential elections.

Next month will be a decisive moment in Yushchenko’s fortune.

Yushchenko has called on Our Ukraine’s Ministers to resign, undermining Ukraine’s government in order for Yushchenko to seek to dismiss Ukraine’s democratically elected parliament for a second time and hold another round of Parliamentary elections in October (a date that Yuschenko has rejected for the holding of Ukraine’s Presidential elections).

On July 1 Ukraine will hold a special session of the parliament before it moves into Summer recess. Yushchenko has until August to come up with a valid excuse to terminate the authority of the Parliament and dismiss the Government.

The Parliament is scheduled to reconvene after the summer break on September 1 by which time Yushchenko would have lost authority to call fresh Parliamentary elections. (Article 90 of Ukraine’s constitution)

Presidential elections are scheduled for January 17, 2010


Yushchenko faces rebellion within his own party as the county sinks

November 6, 2008

Looks like a rebellion is brewing
NUNS (Our Ukraine and Peoples’Self Defence) are having second thoughts about the strategic direction that Yushchenko has taken Ukraine.

Foreign Notes reports

Representatives of six of the nine political forces that form NUNS have responded to President’s statements that NUNS deputies do not want to renew the democratic coalition with BYuT, and that parliamentary elections remain the only way out of the crisis.

They declared: “We, the leaders of the majority of the political forces on which the NUNS bloc and fraction is based, are extremely surprised by the president’s assertion about “the absence of trust in Yulia Tymoshenko” and about the disinclination of the NUNS fraction to return to the democratic coalition.”

They accuse the NUNS leadership of avoiding party meetings because: “the puppet-masters from Bank Street [pres’s secretariat] are fearful that at the first sitting of the fraction a decision will be approved to return the fraction to the ranks of the democratic coalition.. We yet again responsibly declare that the coalition of democratic forces in parliament should, and must be renewed in a matter of hours. For this only one thing is required – the wish and political will of the president.” The signatories of the declaration “call on the president to cease his motiveless attacks against the government, the PM, and the coalition of democratic forces, particularly today, when the country needs unity to meet the challenges to Ukraine from the world financial crisis.”

So…big trouble in the NUNS camp..

Ukrainiana: Yushchenko: Govt Piled Up Debt “Like a Bitch Piles Up Lice”


Yushchenko faces rebellion within his own party as the county sinks

November 6, 2008

Looks like a rebellion is brewing
NUNS (Our Ukraine and Peoples’Self Defence) are having second thoughts about the strategic direction that Yushchenko has taken Ukraine.

Foreign Notes reports

Representatives of six of the nine political forces that form NUNS have responded to President’s statements that NUNS deputies do not want to renew the democratic coalition with BYuT, and that parliamentary elections remain the only way out of the crisis.

They declared: “We, the leaders of the majority of the political forces on which the NUNS bloc and fraction is based, are extremely surprised by the president’s assertion about “the absence of trust in Yulia Tymoshenko” and about the disinclination of the NUNS fraction to return to the democratic coalition.”

They accuse the NUNS leadership of avoiding party meetings because: “the puppet-masters from Bank Street [pres’s secretariat] are fearful that at the first sitting of the fraction a decision will be approved to return the fraction to the ranks of the democratic coalition.. We yet again responsibly declare that the coalition of democratic forces in parliament should, and must be renewed in a matter of hours. For this only one thing is required – the wish and political will of the president.” The signatories of the declaration “call on the president to cease his motiveless attacks against the government, the PM, and the coalition of democratic forces, particularly today, when the country needs unity to meet the challenges to Ukraine from the world financial crisis.”

So…big trouble in the NUNS camp..

Ukrainiana: Yushchenko: Govt Piled Up Debt “Like a Bitch Piles Up Lice”


One year ago in review – Yymoshenko: "Our Ukraine" Shames Ukraine world over

January 12, 2008

News / 12 January 2007 16:05

Tymoshenko: “Our Ukraine” shames Ukraine world over

BYuT leader Yulia Tymoshenko blamed “Our Ukraine” faction for block of the parliamentary tribune, standing up not for people’s interests but for interests of separate persons. The ForUm’s correspondent informs.

“I would like to focus your attention on the fact that “Our Ukraine” blocked tribunes not for pension or living wage raise, not to throw out “RosUkrEnergo” from Ukraine or to cut the tariffs on housing and municipal services. They blocked tribune for their own posts; to keep state administration under their power,” she said.

On behalf of the whole BYuT faction, Tymoshenko stressed that voting for adoption of law on the Cabinet without consideration President’s amendments, “we conscientiously liquidate conflict that destroys the State, the conflict among the President, speaker and PM; it is our aim to make order in the country and not to shame it by home policy scandals.”

Moreover Tymoshenko said “Our Ukraine” faction destroyed orange team and all what could be destroyed. “They lead the PM Yanukovych and after this blamed us in something. It is a shame on “Our Ukraine” that they try to keep chaos in the country,” Tymoshenko said.

ForUm


Our Ukraine Opposition’s tactics A time bomb ticking or a placebo?

July 9, 2007

The opinion polls have consistently shown little change in voting support with the Governing Coalition between Party of Regions and the Communist Party of Ukraine tip to hold onto power. The only change is due to the loss of support shown for the Socialist Party of Ukraine headed by Olexandr Moroz.

Our Ukraine’s hope and tactic is to try and muster as much support by seeking to include a loose alliance of as many minor parties under their umbrella as they can.

In 2006 27% of Ukrainians were effectively disenfranchised as a result of the 3% participation rate voting threshold. In theory, if successful, this could give the opposition or to be more precise Our Ukraine the edge it needs to creep over the line and win 50% or more votes.

Every vote counts but not every vote is transferable

Our Ukraine is actively trying to win over parties such as Lytvyn and Party Viche to join their ranks the sweetener is that by signing up to a coalition of self interests, minor political parties, will avoid the pitfall of the 3% threshold barrier and be assured of winning parliamentary representation.

The President and Our Ukraine’s strategy comes at a price and is faced with serious risks along the way, namely Stability.

Our Ukraine does not have a good track record of negotiation and compromise and it is difficult to see how the new look Our Ukraine will function in government should they be elected. Details of the Our Ukraine/People Self-Defence agreement have not been published. So it is not easy to determine how they will operate and how each of the parties will be given a voice let alone the sharing of seats.

The Imperative Mandate provisions of Ukraine’s Constitution, which is overwhelming embraced by Viktor Yushchenko has whilst condemned by the European Parliamentary Assembly as being undemocratic, will provide some constraint over the revised Our Ukraine coalition of self-interests.

Under the Imperative Mandate regime members of the Our Ukraine coalition will not be able to vote outside the party bloc. They effectively have their hands tied and lose their independence and ability to implement policy independently from the block as a whole. In theory Our Ukraine bloc members will be obliged to tow the party line. A party in which Our Ukraine holds the majority.

The other hurdle facing the Our Ukraine bloc is Yulia Tymoshenko.

Yulia Tymoshenko’s team, unlike the other minor parties, has resolved to go it alone. Yulia will retain the right of independence as a group giving them more flexibility in how they will vote.

Yulia Tymoshenko is facing the distinct possibility of losing out to the new-revised opposition coalition party.

If Our Ukraine “plus” manages to secure more votes then Yulia’s Party then Yulia’s desire to regain the Prime-Minister’s seat will be on tender hooks as the agreement between Our Ukraine and Block Yulia Tymoshenko is who ever secures the most votes in the election will have the right to nominate Thor candidate for Prime Minister. For every party that signs up with Our Ukraine the less likely Yulia will become PM.

The full extent of division in the opposition will undoubtedly become apparent when and if the opposition is faced with the task of governing the country.

Our Ukraine will endeavour to present a image of unity in the lead up to the September poll but how united are they? What is their policy for example on NATO membership? Will members once elected be faced with the reality of being part of a government and unable to cross the floor and vote against coalition partners?

The tactics of Our Ukraine may win out in the short term but it is a recipe for instability and division just waiting for the chain reaction to explode.

There is eleven weeks until the election and without doubt other political forces will also be considering their position before the dealine for registration in the leadup to the September 30 election. United you stand divided you fall.