The districts of shame: Missing protocols

February 9, 2010

24 hours  after the pols closed the following Obslasts/Districts have not submitted their polling return protocols. (What is the hold up? why does it  take to long to count a few votes ?- its not a difficult task)

Region District No Percentage counted
Crimea 1 94.44%
3 83.13%
6 90.99%
9 56.41%
10 97.43%
Volyn Oblast 19 98.66%
Zaporizhia Oblast 77 98.87%
Kyiv Oblast 93 98.33%
Luhansk Oblast 109 87.05%
110 91.66%
Lviv Oblast 120 95.28%
Odesa Oblast 141 98.28%
145 97.84%
Kherson Oblast 189 90.41%
Cherkasy Oblast 203 93.49%

Poll: 75% counted Yanukovych still holds the lead – Tymoshenko’s has nothing to be ashamed of.

February 8, 2010

The morning after 6:00AM

With Over 80% of protocols recorded Viktor Yanukovych on 48.68% has maintained his lead over Tymoshenko who has 45.67%.  A closer then expected margin of 3%. The number of participants is estimated to be 65%. The Crimean vote (33.62% counted) is still to be included. All other regions have over 67% registered.

Its all over but for the declaration of the poll.  Tymoshenko will maintain that that she had been cheated out of office. The reality is she did well to secure as many votes as she had given the extent of competition against her.

The outcome of the election will give cause for Yanukovych to think twice before pursuing a fresh parliamentary election.  Yanukovych could not hold on to the 50% psychological victory.  His win is not a triumph but as they say winners are grinner’s and he will be sworn into office.  There will be no Maidan or Orange revolution II.  Sure Yulia will scream and continue to try and  undermine Yanukovych’s victory But she will not win any overwhelming support if she does.

The only loser is Yushchenko, His dwindling support base did not follow his lead or advice the against all vote (4.48%) showed little change.

The closer then expected result, and the fact that Ukraine remains divided as ever, is a clear indication that the presidential system has once again failed to unite Ukraine.

Over one billion dollars has been spent on this election and what has Ukraine got to show for it? Its future is just as cloudy as it was before. The only difference is that Yushchenko has been removed from office and his opponent in 2004 has won the election by a slender but decisive margin.

The challenge and test of character will be if Yanukovych can reach out and negotiate a successful transition and constitutional change that would see Ukraine put an end to the abuse of Presidential authority and embrace a European parliamentary system?

If there is to be another round of national elections it must only occur following the implementation of reform.

Virtual Election map


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Back to the future: Yanukovych still on track with 70% of the vote

February 8, 2010
Count Update: (8-Feb-2010 4:30AM)

Over 70% of  protocols counted Yanukoych extending his lead as more voptes from tjhe populous East are registered.  Yanukovych (49.08%) Tymosnenko (45.27%)  Against All (4.49%) Informal (1.15%)

Total votes counted. 16,940,350 (46.31%)

Count Update: (8-Feb-2010 4:15AM)

Tymoshenko has opicked up some ground in the last hour but this is due to outstadning protocols in Western being submitted later then in teh East.  There is still a lot of Crimra and Luhanst votes to be registered in the East which will see the scales tip back in Yanukovych’s favour.  Current split Yanukovych (48.99%) Tymsohenko (45.37%)
 

Count Update: (8-Feb-2010 3:15AM)

With just over 52% of the vote counted the turn-out looks like being lower then in the first round at approximately  60%-62%  Yanukovych has been showing a consistent lead at 49.65% and Tymoshenko on 44.73%

A scan of the protocols registered shows that Western Ukraine votes are taking a little longer to  be registered but they will not make up the short fall.   The estimated number of Against All (4.51%) and informal ballots  (1.12%) is on target.

Total number of ballot papers recorded to date is 13,007,237 (32.81% of enrolled)

The outcome is as expected and in line with our lower end estimation (5%) – See our minor candidate split table analysis which challenged the Angus Read KIIS poll. The lower end is due to the lower then expected turn-out. When the count is finalised we will produce some swing charts comparing the first round with the final round and also with the 2004 Presidential election. so you can see where the vote changed.

Virtual Election map


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Back to the future: Yanukovych set to win – Official Result start to trickle in.

February 7, 2010

 Exit Polls have already called the election not the official results are confirming what we all know.  Yanukovych to be Ukraine’s next President.  Yanukovych is expected to exceed the 50% margin with a Comfortable lead.

Live results now posted on Virtual Election map


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Early Exit Polls are predicting 5% to 8% win to Yanukovych as expected.

February 7, 2010

Inter Tv is reporting Yanukovych winning by a margin of 5-8%  Which is the margin we have predicted all along.  Official data is expected to start coming in in the next hour.

Update:

Interfax-Ukraine exit poll: Yanukovych leads among voters in Kyiv, regional capitals
Today at 20:32 | Interfax-Ukraine  Kyivpost

Victor Yanukovych is leading among voters in regional capitals and thecities of Kyiv and Sevastopol, according to an exit poll conducted byInterfax-Ukraine reporters on site at polling stations.

According to the poll, Yanukovych received 51% of votes, whileTymoshenko got 41% with 8% votes against both presidential candidates.

A total of 3,100 people took part in the poll in 23 regional capitals, and the cities of Kyiv and Sevastopol.

National Exit Poll: Yanukovych has been elected the next Ukraine’s president

Today at 19:56 | Staff reports Kyiv Post

 

National Exit Poll 2010 found that 48.7 percent of voters chose Yanukovych, the Party of Regions leader.

Incumbent prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko finished close with 45.5percent of the vote, according to the exit poll. The DemocraticInitiatives’ National Exit Poll is a single Western-funded poll and isconsidered to be the most independent of all.


Poll: Yanukovych 55.9 to Tymoshenko 40.7

January 28, 2010

Angus and Read is reporting a poll undertaken by the Kyiv International Sociology Institute.

It shows 

Viktor Yanukovych 55.9%
Yulia Tymoshenko 40.7%
Against all candidates 3.4%

Source: Kyiv International Sociology Institute
Methodology: Interviews with 2,002 Ukrainian adults, conducted from Jan. 4 to jan. 13, 2010. Margin of error is 2.5 per cent.

This poll is hard to believe because for one it is missing the informal vote which was recorded at 1.65% not to forget Vasyl Protyvsikh vote (0.16%) in the first round, which often is rolled up into the Against All (2.21%) classification, The Poll also does not include the estimated participation rate which is equally important.

Our Analysis of the first round vote indicates that the poll will be much more closer then the 15% gap indicated. For Yanukovych to to increase his vote by 20 percentage points and Tymoshenko only by 15 percentage points would indicate that she would only pick up a fraction of Tigipko’s support base and less then 60% of Our Ukraine’s 12% to 14%, 40% of Lytvyn and none of the Communist block.

We believe Yulia Tymoshenko will collect more, the Against All quota will be twice that indicated in the poll and that in the final outcome Yanukovych will win by a 5% margin (44% to 49% with 6% against all – +/- 1%).

Yanukovych’s challenge is to go above the 50% mark although that is not required.  Under Ukrainian law the winner of the second round is the highest polling candidate.

First Round: Minor Candidate split table (Conservative allocation)

Candidate Vote Split to Yanu kovych Split to Tymo shenko Split to Against All
Viktor Yanukovych 35.33% 100.00% 35.33%
Yulia Tymoshenko 25.05% 100.00% 25.05%
Serhiy Tihipko 13.06% 55.00% 7.18% 40.00% 5.22% 5.00% 0.65%
Arseniy Yatsenyuk 6.96% 15.00% 1.04% 80.00% 5.57% 5.00% 0.35%
Viktor Yushchenko 5.46% 25.00% 1.36% 65.00% 3.55% 10.00% 0.55%
Petro Symonenko 3.55% 50.00% 1.77% 45.00% 1.60% 5.00% 0.18%
Volodymyr Lytvyn 2.35% 50.00% 1.18% 45.00% 1.06% 5.00% 0.12%
Oleh Tyahnybok 1.43% 10.00% 0.14% 85.00% 1.22% 5.00% 0.07%
Anatoliy Hrytsenko 1.21% 30.00% 0.36% 60.00% 0.72% 10.00% 0.12%
Inna Bohoslovska 0.42% 50.00% 0.21% 40.00% 0.17% 10.00% 0.04%
Oleksandr Moroz 0.39% 40.00% 0.15% 50.00% 0.19% 10.00% 0.04%
Yuriy Kostenko 0.22% 15.00% 0.03% 75.00% 0.17% 10.00% 0.02%
Liudmyla Suprun 0.19% 60.00% 0.12% 30.00% 0.06% 10.00% 0.02%
Vasyl Protyvsikh 0.16% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.16%
Oleksandr Pabat 0.14% 15.00% 0.02% 75.00% 0.11% 10.00% 0.01%
Serhiy Ratushnyak 0.12% 50.00% 0.06% 30.00% 0.04% 20.00% 0.02%
Mykhailo Brodskiy 0.06% 50.00% 0.03% 40.00% 0.02% 10.00% 0.01%
Oleh Riabokon 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Against all 2.21% 100.00% 2.21%
Informal 1.65% 100.00% 1.65%
 Est Summary 100.00% 49.00% 44.74% 6.22%

Doing deals with minor candidates

January 9, 2010

There is a lot of talk around that this deal or that deal has been made. Whilst deals are possible in seeking political positions or appointments the fact is they can not deliver. Most do not have loyal natural constituencies. They can not direct their supporters to transfer their votes.

Tigipko, who is expected to come in third behind Tymoshenko and Yanukovych, support base will split between Tymoshenko and Yanukovych in the second round. The same with the Communist and to a lessor degree Yatseniuk.

Yastensenik can not transfer his support to Yushchenko many would opt to support Tymoshenko is he pulled out at the last minute. Yushchenko himself can not direct his own support base which in the second round is expected to also split down the middle in the second round

Example “Split analysis”

Using the survey conducted by U.S.-based International Foundation for Electoral Systems and financed by the United States Agency for International Development. and a conservative split based between Yanukovych, Tymoshenko and Against All

Candidate Poll Split to Yanu kovych Split to Tymo shenko Split to Against All
Viktor Yanukovych 31.2% 100.0% 31.2%
Yulia Tymoshenko 19.1% 100.0% 19.1%
Serhiy Tihipko 4.8% 40.0% 1.9% 40.0% 1.9% 20.0% 1.0%
Arseniy Yatsenyuk 4.7% 25.0% 1.2% 50.0% 2.4% 25.0% 1.2%
Volodymyr Lytvyn 2.8% 30.0% 0.8% 50.0% 1.4% 20.0% 0.6%
Viktor Yushchenko 3.5% 20.0% 0.7% 50.0% 1.8% 30.0% 1.1%
Petro Symonenko 3.8% 40.0% 1.5% 30.0% 1.1% 30.0% 1.1%
Inna Bohoslovska 0.7% 40.0% 0.3% 40.0% 0.3% 20.0% 0.1%
Oleh Tyahnybok 1.8% 5.0% 0.1% 75.0% 1.4% 20.0% 0.4%
Anatoliy Hrytsenko 0.7% 20.0% 0.1% 60.0% 0.4% 20.0% 0.1%
Others 2.4% 40.0% 1.0% 40.0% 1.0% 20.0% 0.5%
Against all 100% 7.9%
Will Not vote
Not sure
 sum 83.4% 38.8% 30.7% 13.9%
Total of Vote 46.6% 36.8% 16.7%

This is not a prediction but it does show the extent of the split in voters’ intentions in a possible second round outcome based on the primary round vote. There never is a 100% transfer rate from one candidate to the another. If you wish you can do your own “what if’s” to determine the max min split in order to produce a change in the result.  Tymoshenko would have to improve her primary vote and work hard on securing a higher percentage split then that allocated above in order to make up the 10 percent shortfall.  Don’t rely on the “Not sure” 11.6% as they would even out across the board to produce an expected participation rate of around 83% and as such not listed in the above split analysis.