Back to the future: Yesterdays villain becomes today’s hero

February 8, 2010

Victor Yanukovych, contender in the 2004 Presidential  election and former Prime-minister of Ukraine 2006-2007 has become President elect  winning over 48% of the national vote three percent more then his rival the hero of the Orange revolution Yulia Tymoshenko.

If there is a villain in this election it was out-going disgraced president Viktor Yushchenko.  Yushchenko received only 5.45% of the vote in the first round of the presidential elections.  He is widely seen as a failed president who divided Ukraine and did not live up to expectations.  Yushchenko demonstrated the futility of the presidential system. His term of office will be remembered as a complete failure.

If Tymoshenko has anyone to blame for her loss it is Yushchenko.  His inability to accept the will of the people and the majority opinion of his own political alliance was his downfall.  He espoused the words of democracy yet his policies and actions where far from democratic.  Yushchenko had advocated an Against all option and 2% more voters then the first round did just that.  Yushchenko destroyed any sense of unity and set the clock back 5 years or more.

Viktor Yanukovych who claimed he had originally won the Presidential election in 2004 received the same level of vote that he had recorded in the ill-fated 2004 second round giving credence to the belief that the 2004 ballot was not as flawed as some made out.

The parade may be over but the entertainment and celebrations has just began.

Losing the battle but not yet the war.

Tymoshenko is expect to concede defeat.  Yanukovych may have won this round but Tymoshenko did well to receive the vote she did.  She can hold her head up high and continue to maintain a presence in Ukraine’s political scene for some time to come.


Circus Parade comes to an end: 99.45% counted – Yanukovych by 3%

February 8, 2010

IN what tuned out to be a closer match then expected Viktor Yanukovych, former prime minister and presidential hopeful in the 2004 “Orange revolution” has won the 2010 Presidential election  by a 3% margin.

As of 20:30

Vote Percentage
Viktor Yanukovych 12,372,737 48.81%
Yulia Tymoshenko 11,562,112 45.61%
Against All 1,108,582 4.37%
Informal 1.19%
Participation 25,346,432 69.30%

Turn out 2% more punters voted this round then in the first round event

The  outcome was in line with exit polls closest margin and in spite various protests by Yulia Tymoshenko Yanukovych, runner up in the final 2004 contest  is expected to be declared the winner of the 2010 parade. 

The conduct of the election has received the all important stamp of approval by the OSCE.

There will not be a repeat of the events of 2004.  The judges decision is final and no correspondence will be entered into to.  Any attempt to overturn the result will fail and will only cause more harm and resentment then good.  Falling below 50% of the vote Yanukovych’s win can not be seen as a total victory.  

Virtual Election map

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Limited mandate: Time for reflection and cooperation not confrontation

February 8, 2010
Victor Yanukoych’s slender majority is not an absolute mandate he failed to break over the 50% threshold.   Tymoshenko’s’  support is never the less impressive and indicates the extent that Ukraine is divided.

Yanukovych must acknowledge the support given to Tymoshenko’s candidacy and reconsider his policy of confrontation and the proposed dismissal of Ukraine’s parliament.  He must make every effort to find common ground and to once again join Tymoshenko at the negotiating table and seek a strategic alliance that is in Ukraine’s best interest.

Yanukovych has a limited mandate only.   He can only claim the right to represent 33% of Ukraine (48% of 69%).

In making a conciliatory jester Tymoshenko must also concede the election which all the exit polls had  confirmed Yanukovych’s slender win.

With Yushchenko removed from office there is hope.  Hope that Ukraine can find a way forward without another round of elections and ongoing political confrontation.

Judgement day – Let the poll begin

February 7, 2010

Ukraine goes to the polls today. Voting had commenced first in Australia and then Japan as it sweept the globe, the Russian continent and Asia.  Next comes Ukraine where the bulk of the votes will be cast followed by Poland, Turkey, Europe, England then Canada and the USA.

Polling opens 8:00AM and closes 6:00PM (Local time)

Exit polls giving an indication of the first results are expected to be released by 8:00PM

The Circus Parade Finale – Revolution II the other side – Ukraine’s Blue Movie

February 7, 2010

It may be frustrating and at times boring but the Ukrainian 2010 Presidential parade never ceases to amaze. Ever since 2004 when Viktor Yushchenko was crowned head clown in a blaze of orange the world has look on and watched a state it its making.  More exciting the formation of galaxies or the explosion of a quasar star and the birth of a black hole.  Viktor Yushchenko who once held the support of 52% of the nation lost in the first round elimination parade and only managed to secure 5.45% support. A team of would be spoiler candidates stood against him making sure he would not be a final contender.

Yulia Tymoshenko, Ukraine’s Prime Minister and version of Evita “Don’t die for me Ukrainiana”  versus Viktor Yanukovych,  back to the future “return of the dark horse villain”.

Most Cossackwood watchers and critics  have already awarded the event to the “Dark horse” who has odds less then  three to one.  Even the attention seeking antics of Ukraine’s own  version of Evita have not managed to sway the critics to support her plea for recognition.

By this time tomorrow (8:00PM) we will know who has won. Will there be a sequel to the Orange revolution II with its theme song Dances with Wolves or will it be Road kill and squashed orange juice at the dinner on the maidan with Cossack dances jumping for joy at the rebirth of Yul Brynner’s career – Ukraine’s version of the President and I mixed with  a touch of “Taras Bulba

Already the supporters of the main performers are staking strategic positions to underpin their Viktory or protests along the cat walk.  The attack of the blue berries will not be outdone by the rotten oranges as the fruit cocktail recipes are brought to market.

The only winner in this parade of circus clown is the media who have never been denied an angle or a story to write about. The beginning of the end, the start of World War III, Armageddon and Babylon all rolled into one.

Sit back relax and watch the events unfold as the sporting night of the black sky dawns. We will be bringing you the all-Ukrainian judges judgement day,  virtual reality live results as they are unfolded and are published, translated and republished on our updated electronic tally board “voters map”

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Tymoshenko shows sign of hysteria over new law

February 4, 2010

Ukraine’s outgoing President Viktor Yushchenko has signed the new law on the Presidential election and a hysterical struggle for power has played out with Tymoshenko trying to prevent the publication of the law by commanding the Government printing presses in a desperate pathetic attempt to prevent the promulgation of the law.

The basis for Tymoshenko’s opposition on the new law is questionable as is her reaction.  The issue of concern over the quorum requirements only comes into effect if she and her party are planning on disrupting the election by not attending meetings and fulfilling their obligations. It only becomes an issue if Tymoshenko does not participate.  She is not being denied the right of representation. Tymoshenko’s is being hysterical and is losing international respect at a fast rate of knots.  Party of Regions and the Parliament is not at fault in supporting this change.

Tymoshenko’s latest hysterics and call for a new Maidan is a cover up for her impending loss.  Her campaign has been negative and she has not made any headway over the last two weeks and her polling no doubts shows she is about to lose on Sunday.

The International community will not back her on this one.  Her best bet is to campaign for constitutional reform and the removal of presidential power.  She may have even lost that opportunity.


“Jens-Hagen Eschenbaecher, a spokesman for the Organization for Securityand Cooperation in Europe’s election monitoring body, pointed out thatthe amendments won’t affect the outcome of the vote if both camps actin good faith, as they did in the first round of voting Feb. 17.”

Tymoshenko bursts into tears and refuses to participate in the final parade.

February 4, 2010

This latest gaff of Tymoshenko’s has ruled her out of contention.  Three days before the final parade the clown will not go on. Instead of facing the audience she has walked off the set.  She can not make a comeback and may even have to give up her role in the other show.

There is no logic or justification for the primadonna stunt she has tried to pull other then the fact that she knows she can not win.

Even Yushchenko who was in a unwinnable position from  the start did not admit defeat before the first round ballot.
The Presidential circus parade  has cost over one billion dollars to stage.

Yanukovych was criticized for not participating in the the lead up parade and now Tymoshenko is refusing to go on and participate in the final parade.  She did the same thing in Ternopil when she pulled out of that race.

In the process she has betrayed not only those who supported her but Ukraine.  She will not be able to recover from this latest disaster. And any hope of a revival or principle stance has gone.  I doubt if she can even remain as Prime-minister for long.  All Ukraine can do now is hope that Yanukovych puts the interest of Ukraine ahead of his own.  With surrender come humiliation and defeat