The Election is over: Tymoshenko admits defeat

February 4, 2010

Ukraine’s incumbent Prime-minister and candidate for the president Yulia Tymoshenko has admitted defeat and declared the election is over.

Faced with knowing that she has lost the campaign she has embarked on another display of Yuilaism where she has sought to blame things that have nothing to do with her failure to win the election as the reason for her loss.

She failed to win confidence of the Ukrainian people,  her antics today will  only reduce her standing.

The amendments to the law on elections reduced the quota required to hold meetings of the regional election committees.  This is not a big deal and was deemed necessary to prevent misuse and abuse by political factions/candidate representatives walking out knowing that their candidate had lost the election.  A lower quorum does not prevent her or her team from attending meetings or fulfilling their duties.

Tymoshenko is using this latest change as an excuse to justify her loss as she has been making unsupported, false allegations of election fraud throughout the election.  Her allegations of fraud in then first round were unproven and she failed to make headway in the second round.

Even the hired Georgian paramilitary have packed their bags and headed back home, not needed.

With the events of today we will have to review our estimates of a 5% loss and increase Yanukovych margin to 8% to 10%  possible even higher after today.

Tymoshenko best bet would have been to campaign for Constitutional change and the removal of power from the president.  In hindsight she should have nominated Hryhoriy Nemyria as BYatT’s candidate and Yulia remained as Prime minister.

The extent of her expected loss will make it that much harder for her to say on as Prime Minister. She may have lost much more then the election, an election that should not have been.

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Election Day forecast

February 1, 2010

Weather outlook for Kyiv Sunday February 7  

Day


Snow
High
1°C

Precip
70%

Last Updated Monday, Feb 1, 8:41 AM Local Time


One week remaining before the final circus parade

January 31, 2010

In just Seven days time Ukraine will go to the polls in what is their fourth national ballot since Viktor Yushchenko took office. Yushchenko having lost in the first round vote is now engaged in a campaign of revenge and has offered his support to his past rival Viktor Yanukovych.

Yanukovych remains in poll position and is most likely to win next week’s final ballot. At the end of the first round ballot held on January 17, Yanukovych on 35.32% was 10 percentage points ahead of his nearest rival current Prime Minister and heroine of the Orange revolution Yulia Tymoshenko.

The decision as who will win the final ballot will be determined by the second choice vote of 36% who supported other minor candidates. The turn out on January 17 was also at the lower end of expectation and an additional 5-7 million Ukrainians (20%) could be motivated to cast a ballot in the final round.

Expectation is that Tymoshenko will fall short by 5% points.

Early results will show just how close it really is. A comparison of polling pace to polling place as the results come in will show the extent of the national swing and the expected outcome of the election. A clear indication just how close it is should be known within two to three hours of the results being reported. Exit polls will also foretell the expected outcome by 8PM on Sunday February 7.

Crowds will either gather in celebration or in protest. 

If the election result is close then Ukraine will face serious civil unrest. The winner will not stand by and allow the results to be overturned. Allegation and counter allegations of voting fraud in the first round of elections did not eventuate. No doubts these allegations will once again surface whether they have any basis of merit or not.

Democracy is not only about winning elections but maintaining confidence in the process and acceptance of defeat. The Events of 2004 and again in 2007 have left a serious public distrust and loss of confidence in the political process. Ukraine is on the verge of either taking a new direction or the possibility of total anarchy. A tinder box waiting to be ignited.

Ukraine’s cold winter is both a blessing and a curse. On one hand it will reduce the extent of voter participation on the other it may help quell support and protest. Supporters of Tymoshenko will not be as motivated this time round as they were in 2004.

Yanukovych’s support base on the other hand will not stand by and allow the election to be stolen from their grasp.

Any disputation over the election results must establish that any errors or omission in the conduct of the poll would have produced a decisive change in the overall result. It would be wrong to prosecute every single flaw in the administration of the ballot if the results would not alter had the errors or omissions not occurred.

One week remaining and the battle will not be over, it has only just begun.


First Round Presidential campaign comes to an end

January 15, 2010

Campaigning in the first round of the presidential election concludes tonight at 12 midnight Kyiv time

The election has been pretty much a non-event.  No real earth shattering poll busting events over the last two weeks, Certainly not enough to warrant a change of expectation in the outcome of the election.

There has been a lot of two and throw bantering, allegations of corruption, vote rigging and deals done.  The most dramatic being a deal between Yushchenko and Yanukovych to secure a place for Yushchenko’s men in the inevitable changing of the guard.

Come 12 midnight the campaigning comes to an end.  Well that depends if you consider a Party of Regions proposed rally on the 16th not part of the campaign.  Polls open at 8AM on Sunday January 17 and close at 6PM.  Early results should begin to be known at around 9 to 10PM with a good indication of the likely outcome by 4PM on the Monday.

Then it starts up again with the two highest polling candidates battling it out at the final round of voting scheduled for February 7.  Why the did not opt for a single round preferential voting system is anyone’s guess? A preferential system would have produced the same outcome and the results known in days as opposed waiting weeks and another round of voting.


Buying Property on the moon. Votes for sale election scam

January 13, 2010

There are reports in the media that advertisements have been placed where Ukrainians have offered to sell their votes for a sum of 100 to 500 hryvnia.

Whilst this is good media copy (designed to sell news more then votes) the suggestion that anyone would be in a position to sell their vote let alone someone buying it is beyond reason and reality.

The reasons are simple.  In order to influence the change in the election you would need to buy 5 to 10 percent of the electorate. – One to two million votes. There are not enough votes out there for sale, at a cost of 500 million to  one billion.

Second and most important you would never know if the vote you had bought was delivered and who failed to deliver it.

This is a joke, an electoral scam that is no different then the candidate that changed his name to “Against all”.

A bit like selling/buying property on the moon it can never be realized.

Jamestown Foundation has published this summary of vote allegations
Quote:

Andry Portnov, a key legal adviser to Tymoshenko, told 5 Kanal onDecember 8 that there were no reasons to expect massive irregularities.He also said that Tymoshenko’s party was happy with the currentelection law and did not plan to propose any amendments to it.

People directly involved in the election process have appealed forcalm. Oleksandr Chernenko, the leader of the Committee of Voterselection watchdog, noted that TsVK’s decision on home voting was fullyin line with the election law for which Tymoshenko’s party had voted inparliament (UNIAN, January 7). TsVK Chairman Volodymyr Shapoval warnedagainst making unsubstantiated accusations of ballot rigging. He saidhe knew of no cases involving an official accused of electionirregularities being named or their guilt proven. He called on thelaw-enforcement bodies to provide names and open criminal cases if theyfound anything (Interfax-Ukraine, January 11).

Aleksandr Torshin noted. that Tymoshenko’s team hadmore than enough registered observers to prevent irregularities(Interfax, January 7).


Election Day Weather forecast

January 10, 2010

The long range weather forecast for Kyiv January 17, 2010

 

10-Day Forecast

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‘);// –>


High /
Low (°C)
Precip. %
Tonight
Jan 10
Rain / Snow 90 %
Mon
Jan 11
Rain / Snow 1°/-4° 90 %
Tue
Jan 12
Snow Shower -3°/-10° 70 %
Wed
Jan 13
AM Snow Showers -7°/-12° 30 %
Thu
Jan 14
Cloudy -8°/-12° 10 %
Fri
Jan 15
Cloudy -8°/-11° 10 %
Sat
Jan 16
Partly Cloudy -8°/-11° 10 %
Sun
Jan 17
Sunny -8°/-11° 10 %
Mon
Jan 18
Partly Cloudy -5°/-11° 10 %
Tue
Jan 19
Cloudy -3°/-7° 10 %
Last Updated Jan 10 12:14 p.m. Local Time


Doing deals with minor candidates

January 9, 2010

There is a lot of talk around that this deal or that deal has been made. Whilst deals are possible in seeking political positions or appointments the fact is they can not deliver. Most do not have loyal natural constituencies. They can not direct their supporters to transfer their votes.

Tigipko, who is expected to come in third behind Tymoshenko and Yanukovych, support base will split between Tymoshenko and Yanukovych in the second round. The same with the Communist and to a lessor degree Yatseniuk.

Yastensenik can not transfer his support to Yushchenko many would opt to support Tymoshenko is he pulled out at the last minute. Yushchenko himself can not direct his own support base which in the second round is expected to also split down the middle in the second round

Example “Split analysis”

Using the survey conducted by U.S.-based International Foundation for Electoral Systems and financed by the United States Agency for International Development. and a conservative split based between Yanukovych, Tymoshenko and Against All

Candidate Poll Split to Yanu kovych Split to Tymo shenko Split to Against All
Viktor Yanukovych 31.2% 100.0% 31.2%
Yulia Tymoshenko 19.1% 100.0% 19.1%
Serhiy Tihipko 4.8% 40.0% 1.9% 40.0% 1.9% 20.0% 1.0%
Arseniy Yatsenyuk 4.7% 25.0% 1.2% 50.0% 2.4% 25.0% 1.2%
Volodymyr Lytvyn 2.8% 30.0% 0.8% 50.0% 1.4% 20.0% 0.6%
Viktor Yushchenko 3.5% 20.0% 0.7% 50.0% 1.8% 30.0% 1.1%
Petro Symonenko 3.8% 40.0% 1.5% 30.0% 1.1% 30.0% 1.1%
Inna Bohoslovska 0.7% 40.0% 0.3% 40.0% 0.3% 20.0% 0.1%
Oleh Tyahnybok 1.8% 5.0% 0.1% 75.0% 1.4% 20.0% 0.4%
Anatoliy Hrytsenko 0.7% 20.0% 0.1% 60.0% 0.4% 20.0% 0.1%
Others 2.4% 40.0% 1.0% 40.0% 1.0% 20.0% 0.5%
Against all 100% 7.9%
Will Not vote
Not sure
 sum 83.4% 38.8% 30.7% 13.9%
Total of Vote 46.6% 36.8% 16.7%

This is not a prediction but it does show the extent of the split in voters’ intentions in a possible second round outcome based on the primary round vote. There never is a 100% transfer rate from one candidate to the another. If you wish you can do your own “what if’s” to determine the max min split in order to produce a change in the result.  Tymoshenko would have to improve her primary vote and work hard on securing a higher percentage split then that allocated above in order to make up the 10 percent shortfall.  Don’t rely on the “Not sure” 11.6% as they would even out across the board to produce an expected participation rate of around 83% and as such not listed in the above split analysis.