Ukraine in Crisis A US point of view

August 6, 2009

Ukraine in Crisis a US perspective

Ukraine is of strategic importance for the United States (Exactly in what way it is not stated. The US does not rely on Ukraine for any trade, resources or energy nor does it share any borders)

First Speaker David Kramer – Topic: Internal politics and economic situation in Ukraine

Allegations of Ukraine being a failed state in perpetual crisis, a country that is in dire situation.

Closer analysis reveals that while Ukraine is going though great difficulty it is not a failed a state or a state that is at risk of losing its independence or sovereignty but the economic situation is a serious threat to Ukraine. Ukraine’s leaders need to focus on this and if need be put their political differences aside.

GDP has declined since last fall (Autumn) 14% to 15%. First quarter this year GDP declined 20.3% with estimates of the first half of the year averaging out at 18% In contrast this follows on from an average growth over the past seven years of nearly 7% per year.

The local currency plunged 40% this year and has stabilized as a result of the IMF assistance stimulus package of 10 billion US dollars since the start of the world economic crisis.

Ukraine has experienced a significant impact on the economic crisis due to it reliance on the price of heavy metals and chemicals which have fallen as a result of the world economic crisis.

Budget deficit has risen to 6.5% of GDP. Prime-minister Yulia Tymoshenko has promised to reduce spending and reign in the budget deficit. The IMF has demanded a reduction in the subsidy and an increase in energy prices. Ukraine needs to focus on Energy efficiency and develop its own resources.

President Yushchenko, who is on 2.3% in the polls, chances for re-election are not that significant

There are many in Ukraine who want better relations with Russia and with the west. They should be able to do both.

Ukraine remains a fragile democracy.

The last question proposed a follow up question, “What is the biggest threat to Ukrainian security to day?” All participants appeared to agree on the answer, “Ukrainians”. Ukraine’s inability to formalize a compromise position and pursue that in a focused way.

Warning: The attached video requires a high speed internet connection. (Min 256kb)

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Tymoshenko accuses Yushchenko of Presidential coup to prolong his term of office

December 24, 2008

Yulia Tymoshenko, Ukraine’s Prime Minister has expressed concern that Ukraine’s President, Victor Yushchenko is preparing plans to declare a State of emergency and install Martial law in order to prolong his term of Office. Effectually installing an authoritative dictatorship over Ukraine.

The concerns expressed by Yulia Tymoshenko reflect warnings given by other Ukrainian Politicians. Taras Chornovil earlier this year exposed a plot by the Office of the President along similar lines.

Tymoshenko noted that the Ukrainian Constitution envisages cancellation of all elections if the emergency rule is introduced in the country.

Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko said she wants to stop the process and prevent Viktor Yushchenko from installing a dictatorship in what would be seen as an act of desperation to prolong his term of office as President. Presidential elections are due to he held by the end of December 2009.

Viktor Yushchenko had unsuccessfully tried to dismiss Ukraine’s Parliament in October 2008. Last week his own political faction rejected the President’s tactics and agreed to the reformation of Ukraine’s Governing Coalition forcing the President to abandon fresh parliamentary elections.

This latest round of reprisals, accusations in what has been dubbed the Battle of the Oranges, follows serious allegations against Ukraine’s President being involved in a plot to destabilise Ukraine’s economy designed to causing a major loss of confidence and devaluation of the Ukrainian currency (Hryvnia)


Game, set, Match? Elections unlikely to be held before Spring as Yushchenko falls

November 2, 2008

There was an interesting news report on the voting of finances for the election. If you have not got the money then you can not hold an election.

It appears that although there is not a majority of members of Parliament prepared or able to support the formation of a parliamentary majority government, a majority are also not prepared to support the holding of fresh elections at this present time.

The President’s faction OU-PSD are not united in supporting Yushchenko’s destabilization plan.

There is nothing new about minority governments. As long as Julia has the support and vote of confidence of a majority of the Parliament Yushchenko is caught between two different points of reality.

The Constitutional “Imperative Mandate” and the will of individual members of parliament

In 2007 we saw Yushchenko unconstitutionally dismiss the parliament because individuals were being lobbied to support the government’s proposed constitutional reform which would have enabled Ukraine to adopt a democratic European style Parliamentary system of governance.

This year Yushchenko is has tried a different tact. Faced again with the possibility of Constitutional reform not to his liking Yushchenko had a majority of his faction agree to withdraw from the Coalition forcing a minority grouping to also abandon the faction.

But when you add the numbers of the disenfranchised and other minor parties such as the Lytvyn bloc and the Communists, there is a majority of members of parliament that disapprove of the president calling of a snap poll.

Unless the president can obtain the support of a majority members of parliament “Catch 22” no money, no election

Last year the US stepped in and offered to fund the election. Will they do the same this year? Unlikely as Yushchenko’s gamble is certain to back fire on him.

The main party to benefit from fresh elections is Party of Regions because they will secure control over Government. No one else wants to spend money and limited resources in fighting an election that will not resolve the going crisis of Yushchenko’s making.

Unless the President is hoping to form an alliance with Party of Regions what is his game plan other then to destabilize Ukraine and it’s economy?

Somehow, judging by the lack of activity on the streets, I think Yushchenko has called an election that no one really wants except him and Party of Regions, of course. It does not look like it will happen this year that’s for sure.

We can expect a spring election with the President also facing the people of Ukraine. This was the same deal sought back in 2007. Maybe in 2009 Yushchenko will have no other alternative but to except the compromise on offer as Ukraine’s economy begins to buckle under the strain, pressure will be brought to bear ion Yushchenko to accept a compromise and early presidential elections my be the deal maker. Either Way Yushchenko is the real loser in this round if not the match.


Game, set, Match? Elections unlikely to be held before Spring as Yushchenko falls

November 2, 2008

There was an interesting news report on the voting of finances for the election. If you have not got the money then you can not hold an election.

It appears that although there is not a majority of members of Parliament prepared or able to support the formation of a parliamentary majority government, a majority are also not prepared to support the holding of fresh elections at this present time.

The President’s faction OU-PSD are not united in supporting Yushchenko’s destabilization plan.

There is nothing new about minority governments. As long as Julia has the support and vote of confidence of a majority of the Parliament Yushchenko is caught between two different points of reality.

The Constitutional “Imperative Mandate” and the will of individual members of parliament

In 2007 we saw Yushchenko unconstitutionally dismiss the parliament because individuals were being lobbied to support the government’s proposed constitutional reform which would have enabled Ukraine to adopt a democratic European style Parliamentary system of governance.

This year Yushchenko is has tried a different tact. Faced again with the possibility of Constitutional reform not to his liking Yushchenko had a majority of his faction agree to withdraw from the Coalition forcing a minority grouping to also abandon the faction.

But when you add the numbers of the disenfranchised and other minor parties such as the Lytvyn bloc and the Communists, there is a majority of members of parliament that disapprove of the president calling of a snap poll.

Unless the president can obtain the support of a majority members of parliament “Catch 22” no money, no election

Last year the US stepped in and offered to fund the election. Will they do the same this year? Unlikely as Yushchenko’s gamble is certain to back fire on him.

The main party to benefit from fresh elections is Party of Regions because they will secure control over Government. No one else wants to spend money and limited resources in fighting an election that will not resolve the going crisis of Yushchenko’s making.

Unless the President is hoping to form an alliance with Party of Regions what is his game plan other then to destabilize Ukraine and it’s economy?

Somehow, judging by the lack of activity on the streets, I think Yushchenko has called an election that no one really wants except him and Party of Regions, of course. It does not look like it will happen this year that’s for sure.

We can expect a spring election with the President also facing the people of Ukraine. This was the same deal sought back in 2007. Maybe in 2009 Yushchenko will have no other alternative but to except the compromise on offer as Ukraine’s economy begins to buckle under the strain, pressure will be brought to bear ion Yushchenko to accept a compromise and early presidential elections my be the deal maker. Either Way Yushchenko is the real loser in this round if not the match.


Portrait of Betrayal The saga continues

October 26, 2008

Recent events have concluded what has been an unfolding saga of betrayal and destabilisation initiated by the Office of the President of Ukraine, Viktor Yushchenko.

We take an independent look back over the last three years of Victor Yushchenko reign of terror and the consequences of Ukraine’s political instability since 2004 and the tumultuous collapse of the Orange Revolution eventually leading to serious economic decline and loss of public confidence in the democratic process.

The implosion began in 2005 when Viktor Yushchenko dismissed Yulia Tymoshenko as Prime Minister in what was seen as the first betrayal of his supporters who help him get elected as President, replacing her with his own nominee.

Our Ukraine fails to sign up and form a governing coalition

Immediately after the 2006 Parliamentary election Viktor Yushchenko’s party “Our Ukraine” who received only 14% of the vote refused to commit and sign up to a coalition agreement with his former Orange Revolution partners “Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko” and the Socialist party of Ukraine. Our Ukraine procrastinated for nearly three months whilst continuing to negotiate with Party of Regions a possible coalition between our Ukraine and Part of Regions.

In the midst of the negotiations Our Ukraine tried to force Yulia Tymoshenko from seeking the role of Prime Minister hoping to put in her place their own representative.

Our Ukraine delivers the first blow

When Our Ukraine’s attempt to replace Yulia Tymoshenko failed they then sought to prevent Alexander Moroz, Leader of the Socialist Party from securing the position of Speaker of the parliament.Again Our Ukraine wanted their representative appointed to this position, The Socialist Party and also Yulia Tymoshenko was of the view that given that Our Ukraine held the position of President and Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko held the position of candidate for Prime Minister it was only fair that the Socialist Party secured the position of Speaker.

With time running out the Socialist party realised that Yushchenko and Our Ukraine had not acted in good faith and that a coalition involving the President’s Party Our Ukraine would not happen

The Socialist Party, disillusioned and concerned that time had run out for the formation of a governing coalition decided to withdraw from coalition discussion with Our Ukraine and entered into an agreement with the Party of Regions and the Communist Party to form a governing coalition signalling the beginning of the collapse of the Orange Revolution partnership.

Victor Yushchenko initiates war of attrition

Viktor Yushchenko opposed to the new Parliamentary majority sought to undermine the functioning of the government and threatened to block supply in December 2006 only to back down at the last minute before midnight December 31, 2006.

The Parliament fights back with the support of BYuT

The Parliament, then with the support of Yulia Tymoshenko, in order to minimise the ongoing abuse and misuse of Presidential authority passed legislation to regulate and the powers of the President and the Cabinet of Ministers. This legislation was supported by over 360 members of parliament and as such overrode the right of veto of the President.

Yushchenko attacks democracy and dismisses his first parliament

On April 2007 Viktor Yushchenko, in order to prevent the parliament from securing a constitutional majority required to amend Ukraine’s Constitution, unconstitutionally dismissed the 5th convocation of Ukraine Parliament. Yushchenko later illegally interfered with the operation and independence of Ukraine’s Constitutional Court and on May 30 unilaterally dismissed three Constitutional Court Judges in order to prevent the Constitutional Court from overturning his decree dismissing Ukraine’s democratically elected Parliament.

It was not until Yulia Tymoshenko and later members of the Our Ukraine bloc withdraw and resigned their Parliamentary mandates that agreement was finally reached for the holding of fresh Parliamentary elections which were held on September 30.

Prior to the September 2007 poll Our Ukraine joined forced with the People’s Self-Defence Party a breakaway “pro-presidential” group headed by Yuriy Lutsenko

The results of the 2007 Parliamentary election

Party of Regions (34.37%) 175 seats
Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko (30.72%) 156 seats
Our Ukraine-People’s Self Defence (14.16%) 72 seats
Communist Party of Ukraine (5.39%) 27 seats
Bloc Lytvyn (3.97%) 20 Seats

The Socialist Party of Ukraine received 2.86% of the vote falling short by 0.14% of the 3% threshold required to secure representation.

New unstable governing coalition formed

Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko and Our Ukraine – People-Self Defence group (who together represented 45% of the electorate) held a slender and unstable majority of 228 out of 450 parliamentary seats. After two rounds of voting the parliament finally elected Yulia Tymoshenko as Prime Minister with only 226 votes and managed to form a governing coalition.

Yushchenko’s policy of destabilization continues unabated

Soon after taking Office Viktor Bolaha, The Secretary of the office of the President, with the support of Viktor Yushchenko began a concerted effort to destabilize the governing coalition. Two members of the Our Ukraine – Peoples’ Self-Defence bloc refused to support the Tymoshenko government preferring instead to sit on the side benches. Their refusal signalling yet again the collapse of the Orange coalition.

Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko support democratic Constitutional reform opposed by Yushchenko

In April 2008 Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko, to the annoyance and disagreement of the pro-presidential forces, announced her parties support for Constitutional reform that would see Ukraine adopt a full parliamentary model of governance in-line with other European States and corresponding reduction in the powers of the President.

The policy of reform and the adoption of a Parliamentary system was widely supported by all parties except Our Ukraine, however agreement could not be reached on the exact terms of the wording of a revised Constitution.

Under the provision of Ukraine’s Constitution the Constitution in part can be amended by a Constitutional majority of 300 out of 450 members of a parliament.

In the meantime Viktor Yushchenko, who has been opposed to democratic constitutional reform and the formation of a European Parliamentary system since 2002, planned the second dismissal of Ukraine’s parliament in as many years in order to prevent the parliament from reaching agreement and enacting change to Ukraine’s constitution.

Yushchenko fans the flames of division as war breaks out between Russia and Georgia – Tymoshenko refuses to support Yushchenko’s attempts to escalate regional conflict

IN August 2008 Viktor Yushchenko tried to embroil Ukraine in the regional disputation and military conflict with Russia following the Georgian Government’s provocation and attack on its break-away province of South Ossetia.

Yulia Tymoshenko aware of the circumstances of the provocation refused to allow Ukraine to become involed in the dispute which would have seriously escalated the conflict and divided Ukraine bringing it close to facing its own civil war. As a result of Yulia sensable policies Ukraine’s Parliamentary government prevented any further escalation of the conflict by refusing to support Viktor Yushchenko’s unjustified policy of divison and conflict.

Yushchenko makes false allegations of High Treason against Ukraine’s Prime Minister in retaliation for her refusal to support the war against Russia.

Viktor Yushchenko in making the allegation of treason had the security forces (SBU) prosecute Yulia Tymoshenko.

The security forces investigated the President’s complaint and found that there was no case to answer and that the Prime Minister had not committed High Treason as falsely claimed by the President

Our Ukraine withdraw support of Governing coalition ending the Orange partnership

On September 2, 2008, with relations between the President and the governing coalition fuelled by bitter acrimony, Victor Yushchenko’s Party ‘Our Ukraine’ announced the collapse of the governing coalition and the withdrawal of Our Ukraine forcing the People’s Self Defence party to also withdraw from the coalition agreement.

Second Parliament dismissed one year after being elected

On October 7 Victor Yushchenko dismissed the Parliament for the second time is as many years and called fresh parliamentary elections. In spite attempts and efforts made by Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko to meet the President’s demands, Victor Yushchenko refused to compromise bringing to a complete end final collapse of the Orange coalition that was formed in 2004 which saw Victor Yushchenko elected to Office.

President’s support reduced to less then 5%

Victor Yushchenko’s public support has collapsed and is now sitting on around 5% support according to latest public opinion polls. He is unlikely to be re-elected to a second term of office with or without the support of a major political party.

No change or a return to the past expected as a result of new poll

All indication are that the results of fresh elections will produce more or less the same outcome as previous elections in 2006 or 2007 leaving the question as to what Victor Yushchenko hopes to gain from holding fresh elections and abandoning the existing governing coalition.

Allegations of Presidential constitutional coup surface

Some claim that President is trying to provoke a constitutional confrontation in-order to justify and create a situation so that the President can call a state of emergency and install a Presidential dictatorship.

Date tentative set for new poll

Elections were schedules for December 7, 2008 but following another round of court challenges and further interference in the judicial process by the President, the latest round of Parliamentary elections are now scheduled for December 14 with expectations that this date will also be postponed

The saga of the President’s betrayal continues with Ukraine now suffering serious economic decline as a result of the enforced political instability initiated by the Office of the President, Victor Yushchenko


Portrait of Betrayal The saga continues

October 26, 2008

Recent events have concluded what has been an unfolding saga of betrayal and destabilisation initiated by the Office of the President of Ukraine, Viktor Yushchenko.

We take an independent look back over the last three years of Victor Yushchenko reign of terror and the consequences of Ukraine’s political instability since 2004 and the tumultuous collapse of the Orange Revolution eventually leading to serious economic decline and loss of public confidence in the democratic process.

The implosion began in 2005 when Viktor Yushchenko dismissed Yulia Tymoshenko as Prime Minister in what was seen as the first betrayal of his supporters who help him get elected as President, replacing her with his own nominee.

Our Ukraine fails to sign up and form a governing coalition

Immediately after the 2006 Parliamentary election Viktor Yushchenko’s party “Our Ukraine” who received only 14% of the vote refused to commit and sign up to a coalition agreement with his former Orange Revolution partners “Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko” and the Socialist party of Ukraine. Our Ukraine procrastinated for nearly three months whilst continuing to negotiate with Party of Regions a possible coalition between our Ukraine and Part of Regions.

In the midst of the negotiations Our Ukraine tried to force Yulia Tymoshenko from seeking the role of Prime Minister hoping to put in her place their own representative.

Our Ukraine delivers the first blow

When Our Ukraine’s attempt to replace Yulia Tymoshenko failed they then sought to prevent Alexander Moroz, Leader of the Socialist Party from securing the position of Speaker of the parliament.Again Our Ukraine wanted their representative appointed to this position, The Socialist Party and also Yulia Tymoshenko was of the view that given that Our Ukraine held the position of President and Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko held the position of candidate for Prime Minister it was only fair that the Socialist Party secured the position of Speaker.

With time running out the Socialist party realised that Yushchenko and Our Ukraine had not acted in good faith and that a coalition involving the President’s Party Our Ukraine would not happen

The Socialist Party, disillusioned and concerned that time had run out for the formation of a governing coalition decided to withdraw from coalition discussion with Our Ukraine and entered into an agreement with the Party of Regions and the Communist Party to form a governing coalition signalling the beginning of the collapse of the Orange Revolution partnership.

Victor Yushchenko initiates war of attrition

Viktor Yushchenko opposed to the new Parliamentary majority sought to undermine the functioning of the government and threatened to block supply in December 2006 only to back down at the last minute before midnight December 31, 2006.

The Parliament fights back with the support of BYuT

The Parliament, then with the support of Yulia Tymoshenko, in order to minimise the ongoing abuse and misuse of Presidential authority passed legislation to regulate and the powers of the President and the Cabinet of Ministers. This legislation was supported by over 360 members of parliament and as such overrode the right of veto of the President.

Yushchenko attacks democracy and dismisses his first parliament

On April 2007 Viktor Yushchenko, in order to prevent the parliament from securing a constitutional majority required to amend Ukraine’s Constitution, unconstitutionally dismissed the 5th convocation of Ukraine Parliament. Yushchenko later illegally interfered with the operation and independence of Ukraine’s Constitutional Court and on May 30 unilaterally dismissed three Constitutional Court Judges in order to prevent the Constitutional Court from overturning his decree dismissing Ukraine’s democratically elected Parliament.

It was not until Yulia Tymoshenko and later members of the Our Ukraine bloc withdraw and resigned their Parliamentary mandates that agreement was finally reached for the holding of fresh Parliamentary elections which were held on September 30.

Prior to the September 2007 poll Our Ukraine joined forced with the People’s Self-Defence Party a breakaway “pro-presidential” group headed by Yuriy Lutsenko

The results of the 2007 Parliamentary election

Party of Regions (34.37%) 175 seats
Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko (30.72%) 156 seats
Our Ukraine-People’s Self Defence (14.16%) 72 seats
Communist Party of Ukraine (5.39%) 27 seats
Bloc Lytvyn (3.97%) 20 Seats

The Socialist Party of Ukraine received 2.86% of the vote falling short by 0.14% of the 3% threshold required to secure representation.

New unstable governing coalition formed

Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko and Our Ukraine – People-Self Defence group (who together represented 45% of the electorate) held a slender and unstable majority of 228 out of 450 parliamentary seats. After two rounds of voting the parliament finally elected Yulia Tymoshenko as Prime Minister with only 226 votes and managed to form a governing coalition.

Yushchenko’s policy of destabilization continues unabated

Soon after taking Office Viktor Bolaha, The Secretary of the office of the President, with the support of Viktor Yushchenko began a concerted effort to destabilize the governing coalition. Two members of the Our Ukraine – Peoples’ Self-Defence bloc refused to support the Tymoshenko government preferring instead to sit on the side benches. Their refusal signalling yet again the collapse of the Orange coalition.

Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko support democratic Constitutional reform opposed by Yushchenko

In April 2008 Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko, to the annoyance and disagreement of the pro-presidential forces, announced her parties support for Constitutional reform that would see Ukraine adopt a full parliamentary model of governance in-line with other European States and corresponding reduction in the powers of the President.

The policy of reform and the adoption of a Parliamentary system was widely supported by all parties except Our Ukraine, however agreement could not be reached on the exact terms of the wording of a revised Constitution.

Under the provision of Ukraine’s Constitution the Constitution in part can be amended by a Constitutional majority of 300 out of 450 members of a parliament.

In the meantime Viktor Yushchenko, who has been opposed to democratic constitutional reform and the formation of a European Parliamentary system since 2002, planned the second dismissal of Ukraine’s parliament in as many years in order to prevent the parliament from reaching agreement and enacting change to Ukraine’s constitution.

Yushchenko fans the flames of division as war breaks out between Russia and Georgia – Tymoshenko refuses to support Yushchenko’s attempts to escalate regional conflict

IN August 2008 Viktor Yushchenko tried to embroil Ukraine in the regional disputation and military conflict with Russia following the Georgian Government’s provocation and attack on its break-away province of South Ossetia.

Yulia Tymoshenko aware of the circumstances of the provocation refused to allow Ukraine to become involed in the dispute which would have seriously escalated the conflict and divided Ukraine bringing it close to facing its own civil war. As a result of Yulia sensable policies Ukraine’s Parliamentary government prevented any further escalation of the conflict by refusing to support Viktor Yushchenko’s unjustified policy of divison and conflict.

Yushchenko makes false allegations of High Treason against Ukraine’s Prime Minister in retaliation for her refusal to support the war against Russia.

Viktor Yushchenko in making the allegation of treason had the security forces (SBU) prosecute Yulia Tymoshenko.

The security forces investigated the President’s complaint and found that there was no case to answer and that the Prime Minister had not committed High Treason as falsely claimed by the President

Our Ukraine withdraw support of Governing coalition ending the Orange partnership

On September 2, 2008, with relations between the President and the governing coalition fuelled by bitter acrimony, Victor Yushchenko’s Party ‘Our Ukraine’ announced the collapse of the governing coalition and the withdrawal of Our Ukraine forcing the People’s Self Defence party to also withdraw from the coalition agreement.

Second Parliament dismissed one year after being elected

On October 7 Victor Yushchenko dismissed the Parliament for the second time is as many years and called fresh parliamentary elections. In spite attempts and efforts made by Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko to meet the President’s demands, Victor Yushchenko refused to compromise bringing to a complete end final collapse of the Orange coalition that was formed in 2004 which saw Victor Yushchenko elected to Office.

President’s support reduced to less then 5%

Victor Yushchenko’s public support has collapsed and is now sitting on around 5% support according to latest public opinion polls. He is unlikely to be re-elected to a second term of office with or without the support of a major political party.

No change or a return to the past expected as a result of new poll

All indication are that the results of fresh elections will produce more or less the same outcome as previous elections in 2006 or 2007 leaving the question as to what Victor Yushchenko hopes to gain from holding fresh elections and abandoning the existing governing coalition.

Allegations of Presidential constitutional coup surface

Some claim that President is trying to provoke a constitutional confrontation in-order to justify and create a situation so that the President can call a state of emergency and install a Presidential dictatorship.

Date tentative set for new poll

Elections were schedules for December 7, 2008 but following another round of court challenges and further interference in the judicial process by the President, the latest round of Parliamentary elections are now scheduled for December 14 with expectations that this date will also be postponed

The saga of the President’s betrayal continues with Ukraine now suffering serious economic decline as a result of the enforced political instability initiated by the Office of the President, Victor Yushchenko


Viktor Yushchenko kills off democracy in Ukraine Ukraine faces its third Parliamentary election in as many years

October 8, 2008

Viktor Yushchenko has dismissed Ukraine’s Parliament in what is a planned execution and power play in a battle of supremacy – President versus Parliament struggle for power.

Yushchenko has undermined Ukraine’s parliamentary system of governance from day one.

His latest attack on democratic values came minutes after the President meet leaders of the parliamentary factions.

In what was a calculated and deliberate blow to the “democratic alliance” and ideals portrayed by the Orange revolution Viktor Yushchenko’s party, Our Ukraine, exposed their true persona and colors. Yushchenko has turned on his former revolutionary comrade and previous supporter, Yulia Tymoshenko, and hammered in the last nail in the Orange Revolution’s coffin. There is no turning back and there will be no reunited push for change. As long as Yushchenko remains in office Ukraine will never be a true democratic state.

Link to Yushchenko’s pre-recorded speech (Russia Today)

A Case of the tail wagging the dog

Our Ukraine was the cause of the collapse of the Orange Coalition in 2006. At every stage they have acted to undermine Ukraine’s Parliamentary System

Viktor Yushchenko, who has less then 5% support in the public opinion polls, has pinned his colors to the mask and declared war on democracy.

A President in denial suffering from delusions of grandeur.

In an incredible display of self deceit Yushchenko tried to rewrite history and deny facts by claiming the he did not dismiss Ukraine’s Parliament in 2007.

On April 2 2007, Viktor Yushchenko unconstitutionally dismissed Ukraine’s democratically elected Parliament. In doing so he brought the country close to civil war, dividing and destabilizing the country like no other person in Ukraine’s short history of independence. In June 2007 he illegally interfered with the independence of Ukraine Constitutional Court to prevent the Court from ruling against his decree. To this day, following Yushchenko’s interference, the Constitutional Court has not ruled on the rights or wrong of the President’s actions.

Today’s announcement is a further power play and another attempt to undermine Ukraine’s economy and political stability. Ukraine is left to suffer and pay the cost of Yushchenko’s divisive action.

It is too early to say how the Parliament will react to this latest act of lunacy. Short term gains and self interests prevent Ukraine’s Parliamentary factions from uniting to defend democratic values and the nation itself.

If the polls are a true indication of voter’s intention then it will be back to square one. The President’s faction may yet pay the ultimate price as the electorate rejects Yushchenko’s latest ploy. It may abandon the political process, disillusioned and in despair. Ukraine could transit into anarchy, reminiscent of the Yeltsin years.

The Winter election comes at the worst time as Ukraine’s economy takes a beating along with the world following the collapse of the US financial system. A time when Ukraine needs stability first and foremost.

Fresh elections will not resolve the underlying structural issues facing Ukraine.

The likely outcome, as has been forewarned by many commentators is that Yushchenko may try an instigate a Presidential coup. If the current political crisis results in civil disobedience, as was the case last year, Yushchenko may use that as the excuse to declare a state of emergency and impose presidential rule. Should any united opposition to the President manifest itself the president will try and use force to assume control as was the case in Georgia earlier this year. It is unclear if the army will follow his orders or if they will side with the Parliament.

Yushchenko’s decision to prolong political instability in Ukraine has been a deliberate attempt to prevent Ukraine from taking decisive steps to limit the President’s power and adopt a European Parliamentary system of governance.

A majority of the Parliament supports Ukraine becoming a parliamentary democracy but they can not come together and remain united in order to bring about change. Yushchenko by dismissing the parliament hopes to prevent Ukraine from becoming a parliamentary democracy.

Without constitutional reform and limitations to presidential power Ukraine will continue to suffer political instability for many years to come. Irrespective of the outcome of the fresh election Ukraine will remain seriously divided with a loss of confidence in the democratic process and systems that bind a democratic nation.

Yushchenko has done more harm to prevent Ukraine’s European integration and democratic development then any person in the history of Ukraine.

If anybody should be facing the people of Ukraine it should be the President not the Parliament.