Statement by Yulia Tymoshenko regarding changes to presidential election law

February 4, 2010

Dear compatriots!

Several hour ago an extraordinary events took place in theVerkhovna Rada. Three days to the elections, the presidential electionlaw was amended, thus fully destroying the presidential elections –making them fraudulent, dishonest and uncontrollable.

This was done because Yanukovych doesn’t believe in his victory, and wants to achieve this result only through fraud.

Until these unacceptable changes were made, election commissionswere formed on a parity principle – half of the commission representingYanukovych, and the other half me. And this gave hope that the resultswould be monitored and controlled.

However, the amendments to the law, which were made in violation ofall parliamentary rules, essentially destroyed parliamentarism andequal control over the elections. And now, according to this law,members of election commissions can be kicked out without a courtruling and the commissions can be comprised of members from only onecandidate

I believe this threatens the elections and completely destroysdemocracy in the state. This destroys the choice the people must makein the presidential elections.

I will now take extraordinary measures. First of all, I will askthe President of Ukraine – if he feels that he is the guarantor of theConstitution, and that he is responsible for the continuation ofdemocracy in our state – to veto this law immediately. If he does notveto it, then I will assume that the President is a party in all theongoing processes to destroy honest elections.

I have invited the G-8 ambassadors to a meeting in several hours.Tomorrow I will invite all ambassadors here in Ukraine to inform themthat once the law is signed, elections don’t exist, they have nomeaning, because everything, every figure, will be falsified. TomorrowI will also hold a press conference for representatives of foreignmedia.

I want the whole world to know who is destroying Ukraine’s youngdemocracy. I want the whole world to know that the end has come tohonest elections in Ukraine. I want the world, all organizations anddemocratically-minded individuals in our country to make theirassessment.

I will fight for the previous version of the law to remain in force, and for elections to take place in Ukraine.


Tymoshenko shows sign of hysteria over new law

February 4, 2010

Ukraine’s outgoing President Viktor Yushchenko has signed the new law on the Presidential election and a hysterical struggle for power has played out with Tymoshenko trying to prevent the publication of the law by commanding the Government printing presses in a desperate pathetic attempt to prevent the promulgation of the law.

The basis for Tymoshenko’s opposition on the new law is questionable as is her reaction.  The issue of concern over the quorum requirements only comes into effect if she and her party are planning on disrupting the election by not attending meetings and fulfilling their obligations. It only becomes an issue if Tymoshenko does not participate.  She is not being denied the right of representation. Tymoshenko’s is being hysterical and is losing international respect at a fast rate of knots.  Party of Regions and the Parliament is not at fault in supporting this change.

Tymoshenko’s latest hysterics and call for a new Maidan is a cover up for her impending loss.  Her campaign has been negative and she has not made any headway over the last two weeks and her polling no doubts shows she is about to lose on Sunday.

The International community will not back her on this one.  Her best bet is to campaign for constitutional reform and the removal of presidential power.  She may have even lost that opportunity.


“Jens-Hagen Eschenbaecher, a spokesman for the Organization for Securityand Cooperation in Europe’s election monitoring body, pointed out thatthe amendments won’t affect the outcome of the vote if both camps actin good faith, as they did in the first round of voting Feb. 17.”

Tymoshenko bursts into tears and refuses to participate in the final parade.

February 4, 2010

This latest gaff of Tymoshenko’s has ruled her out of contention.  Three days before the final parade the clown will not go on. Instead of facing the audience she has walked off the set.  She can not make a comeback and may even have to give up her role in the other show.

There is no logic or justification for the primadonna stunt she has tried to pull other then the fact that she knows she can not win.

Even Yushchenko who was in a unwinnable position from  the start did not admit defeat before the first round ballot.
The Presidential circus parade  has cost over one billion dollars to stage.

Yanukovych was criticized for not participating in the the lead up parade and now Tymoshenko is refusing to go on and participate in the final parade.  She did the same thing in Ternopil when she pulled out of that race.

In the process she has betrayed not only those who supported her but Ukraine.  She will not be able to recover from this latest disaster. And any hope of a revival or principle stance has gone.  I doubt if she can even remain as Prime-minister for long.  All Ukraine can do now is hope that Yanukovych puts the interest of Ukraine ahead of his own.  With surrender come humiliation and defeat

The Election is over: Tymoshenko admits defeat

February 4, 2010

Ukraine’s incumbent Prime-minister and candidate for the president Yulia Tymoshenko has admitted defeat and declared the election is over.

Faced with knowing that she has lost the campaign she has embarked on another display of Yuilaism where she has sought to blame things that have nothing to do with her failure to win the election as the reason for her loss.

She failed to win confidence of the Ukrainian people,  her antics today will  only reduce her standing.

The amendments to the law on elections reduced the quota required to hold meetings of the regional election committees.  This is not a big deal and was deemed necessary to prevent misuse and abuse by political factions/candidate representatives walking out knowing that their candidate had lost the election.  A lower quorum does not prevent her or her team from attending meetings or fulfilling their duties.

Tymoshenko is using this latest change as an excuse to justify her loss as she has been making unsupported, false allegations of election fraud throughout the election.  Her allegations of fraud in then first round were unproven and she failed to make headway in the second round.

Even the hired Georgian paramilitary have packed their bags and headed back home, not needed.

With the events of today we will have to review our estimates of a 5% loss and increase Yanukovych margin to 8% to 10%  possible even higher after today.

Tymoshenko best bet would have been to campaign for Constitutional change and the removal of power from the president.  In hindsight she should have nominated Hryhoriy Nemyria as BYatT’s candidate and Yulia remained as Prime minister.

The extent of her expected loss will make it that much harder for her to say on as Prime Minister. She may have lost much more then the election, an election that should not have been.

10 days countdown to final battle – Tymoshenko remains the underdog

January 27, 2010
Can Tymoshenko secure a deal with Sergei Tigipko to go on and win the final election?  Whilst in theory it is possible the odds are against Tymoshenko who remains the underdog with Viktor Yanukovych retaining poll position.
Problems facing Tymoshenko

1.Tigipko does not have a natural constituency, he is not able toinfluence voters choice as to who is their preferred candidate in the secondround ballot.  they voted for him personally not his party/organisation.

2. Most if not all voters have already decided who they will support.The second round is a wast of time and limited resources. Ukraineshould have adopted a single round preferential ballot system, had they done so  theresults of the election would be known by now.

3. Review of Tigipoko’s support distribution indicates that his voteswere located  in the South East and Kviv metro regions. His votes camepredominately from Party of Regions, The Socialist Party and theCommunist Party (See the various Swing charts comparing the 2004Presidential and 2007 Parliamentary elections)  Most of these voteswill return to Yanukovych as a second choice candidate.

4. Tigipko is playing the field and has a bet each way

5. Tymoshenko needs two out of every three votes allocated to minorcandidates in the first round in order to make up the 10% short fall.This is a big ask. It is not impossible but it is very difficult.

6. All the various public opinion polls had Yulia Tymoshenko remaining10% behind Yanukovych in a run-off ballot. Tymoshenko did pick up anadditional 5% points that were not recorded in the opinion polls. Butto make up a further 10% shortfall will be even more difficult.

All analysis shows that Tymoshenko will fall 5% points behind Yanukovych.

The main reason is that an additional 5% are expected to either not vote or will vote “Against all” in the final ballot.

7. Yushchenko, Yatsenyuk and Hrytsenko are advocating an “Against all“option. Whilst most will not follow their advice, the fact remains thatan Against all vote will favor Yanukovych. Under Ukrainian law the highest polling candidate wins. An against all vote will not count.

Tymoshenko has a very tough battle ahead with less then 10 days remaining before the final poll.

Even if she can manage to pull off a victory it will be a very tightmargin. Anything less then 0.5% will be subject to a challenge. At best Ukrainewill remain bitterly divided.

To add to it all there is talk of forces out there, Georgian, that are hell bent on disrupting the final ballot.This action will only play into the hands of Viktor Yushchenko who isthe only one that would benefit from such action. Georgian President, Mikheil Saakashvili, can not afford to see Ukraine take an independent stand that would weaken his position back at home.  If Ukraine falls. Georgia will be next to tumble.  Various commentators have accused Georgia of plans to disrupt the ballot in Ukraine thus keeping Yushchenko in office should he have an excuse to call a state of emergency “Plan B

With all that is at stake one and the one billion dollar cost of thepresidential campaign one has to seriously question the merit of adirect election of head of state.

Ukraine would have been better off if its head of state was elected bya two-thirds constitutional majority of Ukraine’s parliament. At leastthe person elected would have represented a substantial majority ofUkraine whilst maintaining stability and democratic values.  Estonia, Latvia, Hungary, Moldova, Greece, Switzerland  Czech Republic and India all elect there head of state by a vote of their respective parliament.  Canada, Australia and New Zealand’s head of state is appointed by the Queen of England on the recommendation of their prime-minister.
Ukraine would also be better off it it abandon the Presidential system in favor of a democratic European Parliamentary model of governance.

Who is who in the Circus of clowns: Yulia Tymoshenko

November 13, 2009

Kyiv Post profile of performers

Yulia Tymoshenko, 49, is a former natural gas trading tycoon turned politician in the late 1990s. The Dnipropetrovsk native served in Yushchenko’s reform-minded government in 1999-2000, and played a big role in backing his presidential candidacy in the hotly contested 2004 election, which he won thanks to the Orange Revolution. She served briefly as prime minister in 2005 until being ousted in connection with a falling out with Yushchenko. She regained the premier’s job in 2007 after a strong showing in snap parliamentary elections.

Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko to formally nominate for President on October 25

September 15, 2009

Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko will launch their presidential election campaign on October 25 with the expected formal endorsement of Yulia Tymoshenko as the parties next Presidential candidate.

The official 90 day election period starts on October 19.